Morning briefing: EUR/USD could fall towards 1.0800
|Dollar Index may rise towards 105 while EURUSD could fall towards 1.08. USDJPY and EURJPY appears to be bearish towards 152 and 168-166 respectively. USDCNY can soon test 7.28 in the near term before topping out. The Aussie and Pound, if continues to fall further, can test 0.6550-0.6500 and 1.2850/28 on the downside. USDINR moved up to test 83.7125 post the Union Budget 24-25 but we expect the resistance at 83.70/80 to hold and lead to a fall back from there. EURINR looks bearish for a break below 90.75 and fall towards 90.50.
The US Treasury yields have risen further at the far end while at the near-end, the 2Yr has declined sharply. The bounce from the support on the far-end yields is sustaining well and they can move up further. The 2Yr has limited room to fall from here. It has a strong support coming up from where it can also rise back. The German yields continue to move up in line with our expectation. The bullish view is intact, and the yields can rise further in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain vulnerable to fall more from here.
Dow Jones lacks a follow through rise and that makes it vulnerable to break below 40200 and fall towards 39500. DAX indeed moved up further and can rise towards 18800. Nikkei has come down towards its key support at 39000, which is expected to hold and produce a bounce back from there. Nifty fell sharply to 24074 yesterday post the Union Budget 24-25 but has recovered well from there and might extend the recovery further. Shanghai is attempting to break below the lower end of the 2900-3000 range and looks vulnerable to fall towards 2850-2800 in the coming weeks.
Crude prices have scope to fall towards their key support before a bounce back can happen. Gold has moved up further while Silver has recovered a bit. Both precious metals have to rise past their resistance at 2425-2430 and 29.80-30.00 to become bullish or else a fallback cannot be ruled out. Copper continues to fall and looks bearish towards 4.00. Natural gas has fallen but the broader view will remain bullish while above the support at 2.00.
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