Mixed equities in Asia again, JPY/USD stems bleeding, IDR crashes to 1998 levels, AU Feb CPI tomorrow
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General trend
- Nvida +3% overnight in a good day for US equities, saw Japan chip-relateds Renesas and Toyko Electron +3%, and Topix banking early on returned to July 2024 levels, but that was about as good as it got for Asian stocks today as the Nikkei outperformed Asia up only 0.5%, Hang Seng again underperformed +2.0%.
- USD/JPY came off its best levels after overnight shooting back above the ¥150 mark, falling just a little short of ¥151. JPY pared some losses back to 150.50 at time of publication.
- Indonesia Rupiah falls to levels not seen since 1998 (Asian Financial Crisis).
- Pres Trump sanctions on countries importing Venezuelan oil expected to affect China, as it imports Venezuelan oil, with another potential 25% tariff stacked on top of other tariffs imposed on China.
- China said to have released 5 Mintz employees from detention (detained from Mar 2023) - FT.
- BYD saw 34% increase in Net profit for FY24.
- BOJ Minutes from the Jan rate decision (raised 25bps to 0.50%) saw inline comments; Most members expressed recognition that likelihood of realizing Outlook has been rising.
- Japanese yields continued through to 17-18 year highs.
- US equity FUTs -0.2% during Asian trading.
Looking ahead (Asian time zone)
- Tue (Tue eve DE Mar Business Climate).
- Wed AU Feb CPI, KR Business Confidence, (Wed eve UK Feb CPI, US Feb Durable Goods).
- Thu (Thu night US final Q4 GDP).
- Fri JP BOJ Summary of Opinions, (Fri night US Feb Core PCE).
Holidays in Asia this week
- Fri Mar 28th Indonesia.
Headlines/rconomic data
Australia/New Zealand
- ASX 200 opens +0.1% at 7,936.
China/Hong Kong
- Hang Seng opens -1.1% at 23,643; Shanghai Composite opens flat at 3,370.
- China said to have released 5 Mintz employees from detention (detained from Mar 2023) - FT.
- Reportedly China is weighing including services in multi-billion dollar subsidy program to stimulate domestic consumption; No specific figures yet given – FT.
- BYD Reports FY24 (CNY) Net 40.3B v 39.5Be, Rev 777.1B v 766.3Be.
- (US) White House official confirms the new 25% tariffs on countries that do business with Venezuela will be on top of other tariffs, meaning China tariffs will go to 45% on April 2nd - CNBC's Javers [overnight update].
- China Finance Ministry (MOF) reiterates fiscal policy to be more 'proactive' in 2025; to continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas - Fiscal Implementation Report [overnight update].
- WTO: Members considering China request for panel to examine EU duties on Chinese EVs – press [overnight update].
- WTO: Canada initiates WTO dispute regarding China duties on agricultural and fisheries products [overnight update].
- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1788 v 7.1780 prior [weakest since Jan 20th].
Japan
- Nikkei 225 opens +0.9% at 37,953.
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) Jan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (2 decisions ago): Most members expressed recognition that likelihood of realizing Outlook has been rising.
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Ueda: Reiterates still need some time to consider what to do with BOJ's ETF and REIT holdings - Q&A in parliament.
- Japan PM Ishiba: Said to be planning inflation measures; Reportedly told coalition partner Komeito leader that he would "introduce strong measures to counter rising prices" - Jiji.
- Japan 5-year JGB yield rises to 1.165% [highest since Oct 2008].
- Japan 2-year JGB yield rises to 0.875% [highest since Oct 2008].
- Japan said to impose provisional anti-dumping duties on graphite electrode (used for steel processing) exports from China - NHK.
Korea
- Kospi opens +0.8% at 2,653.
- South Korea Mar Consumer Confidence: 93.4 v 95.2 prior.
- South Korea Jan Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.4% v 11.7% prior; Department Store Sales Y/Y: -3.6% v 10.3% prior; Discount Store Sales Y/Y: -18.8% v 16.1%.
- South Korea Customs Service (KCS) to launch special probe on 'made in Korea' violations ahead of US tariffs - financial prses.
- Hyundai Motors details US $21B investment plan: To invest $9B to expand US auto production to 1.2B units annually by 2028.
- South Korea acting Pres Han (reinstated yesterday): Our Mission is to secure national interests in the trade war - Korean press.
Other Asia
- Indonesia Rupiah falls to levels not seen since 1998 (Asian Financial Crisis) - financial press.
- Indonesia Central Bank (BI) Dir Jusdiman: Intervening in FX markets to support IDR [as Rupiah falls to levels not seen since GFC in 2008] - financial press.
- India reportedly to be likely to drop 6% equalization tariff from April 1st - US financial press.
- Malaysia Central Bank (BNM): Policy in 2025 to be guided by risks to both inflation and growth - Annual report [overnight update].
North America
- (VE) US Pres Trump signs EO imposing sanctions on countries importing Venezuelan oil, effective on April 2nd, 2025, as expected.
- (US) Treasury considering streamlining bank regulators OCC and FDIC - Semafor.
- (BR) Brazil Fin Min Haddad: Possible to adjust limits in fiscal framework in the future.
- (US) Feb Chicago Fed National Activity Index: +0.18 v -0.17e.
- (US) MAR S&P PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.8 V 51.8E (ENTERS CONTRACTION); Cost pressures intensified across both goods and services; Companies grew increasingly cautious about the economic outlook.
- (US) Pres Trump: Confirms Hyundai auto and steel investments in the US; Money is pouring in (to US), we want to keep it that way; Suspect that investment is due to tariffs and the election results - Remarks at Hyundai event.
- (US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter for 2025): There's a lot of uncertainty about the economy; Won't get back to 2% inflation target until early 2027; Now just see one rate cut this year (prior: two cuts) - TV interview.
- (US) Pres Trump: I may give a lot of countries breaks on tariffs; Will be announcing additional tariffs over next few days on lumber, automobiles and chips.
- (US) Reportedly Trump Admin considering excluding some sector specific tariffs in April 2nd as reciprocal tariffs go into effect - press (update).
Europe
- (EU) ECB’s Escriva (Spain): Current environment is extremely uncertain.
- (UK) MAR PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 44.6 V 47.2E (6th straight contraction, 18-month l ow).
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) launches the 2025 Bank Capital Stress Test; Results expected in Q4.
- (EU) ECB's Makhlouf (Ireland): Disinflation is working, moving in the right direction; No comment on Apr rate decision.
- (UK) PM Starmer Spokesperson: Spoke with Trump late on Sunday; Discussed progress towards 'economic prosperity deal'.
- (UK) BOE Gov Bailey: UK must raise growth potential; Tech and trade are essential routes to growth - speech text.
Levels as of 00:20 ET
- Nikkei 225 +0.5%, ASX 200 +0.1%, Hang Seng -2.0%; Shanghai Composite flat; Kospi -0.6%.
- Equity S&P500 Futures -0.2%; Nasdaq100 -0.2% DAX -0.3%; FTSE100 -0.1%.
- Gold +0.3% at $3,052/oz; Crude Oil +0.1% at $69.15/brl; Copper +0.8% at $5.1230/lb.
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