Market analysis on EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCAD: 26th September - 30th September

EURUSD: Forecast: 26th September -30th September

Figure: EURUSD daily chart

The medium-term uptrend is still intact even though the trend line is broken. Currently the price trading well above the 50% retracement level at 1.11640 level. In the last FOMC meeting, the FED has declared that they are not yet ready to hike their interest rate. This decision has created an ease into the mind of EURO investors since the pair was trading below the trend line resistance at 1.1270 level. A daily closing above the bearish trend line resistance at will leads the pair towards the daily broken trend line at 1.1510 level. Traders are expecting a rebound from the broken trend line resistance towards the 50% retracement level. On the contrary, if the bearish trend line resistance creates enough selling pressure than we might see the EURO at 1.1120 minor support level. A clear decisive break of that level will bring the pair towards the critical support level at 1.09594.This level will play a significant role into the next move of EURUSD pair since the 61.*% Fibonacci coincide with the critical support level.

Professional traders are waiting for the price to retrace to the 61.8% retracement level to enter long into this pair. Getting into long position is more reliable considering the delaying of the FED interest rate hike and poor average hourly income data. There is good chance that the traders will get a clear direction in the market for the upcoming week after the speech of ECB president Draghi. A daily closing above the 1.2800 level is strongly bullish for the EURUSD pair. This will target the key resistance at 1.1510 level. A clear break of that level will confirm the establishment of the medium-term uptrend on the daily chart. On the contrary, there is too little chance of a downward move for the EURUSD pair since 1.09540 level is going to provide the significant amount of support. Considering all the parameters, trading stance remains bullish for the EURUSD pair for the upcoming week.

 

GBPUSD Forecast: 26th September -30th September

Figure: GBPUSD daily chart

The Great Britain Pound is suffering from extensive loss after the shocking event of Brexit news. Even after the dovish statement from the FED in FOMC meeting minute, the pair didn’t rally up. Currently, the price is testing the daily uptrend line. A daily closing below the trend line support at 1.29645 level will confirm the completion of the correction of this pair toward the 1.34387 level. The next stop for this pair would be 1.28000 level once the daily minor trend line is broken. On the contrary, profession traders are looking to enter long into the corrective move of this pair. The price action confirmation signal is required in the minor uptrend line for fresh buying signal in the pair. If the support of 1.2950 level holds then we will see an upward rally of this pair towards the 1.30922 level. A clear break of the resistance level will bring another strong bullish move targeting the next key resistance level at 1.34387 level.

The US economy is a pretty week from the very beginning of the month of September. Investors have no interest in buying the green buck at this moment and the market sentiment has strongly turned bearish in US dollar after the dovish FOMC meeting. Traders are expecting a strong upward rally in the GBPUSD pair. But both Great Britain pound and dollar is pretty weak at this stage which has caused an indecision in the GBPUSD pair. Most importantly the upcoming week doesn’t have a major economic event for the Pound. So, precisely the volatility of GBPUSD will be significantly less and traders. Considering all the parameters tight stop loss should be used to buy the trend line support at 1.2980 level. In the absence of definite bearish momentum, we have no interest in selling this pair at the current price level.

 

USDCAD Forecast: 26th September -30th September

Figure: USDCAD daily chart

The medium term down trend in the USD-CAD pair is still intact. Currently, the price is heading towards the 200 days Smother is very little scope for the upward move of this pair since 1.3230 level is going to provide a significant amount of selling pressure. Moreover, this very level also coincides with the broken uptrend line resistance and 200 days SMA. Selling the pair with price action confirmation signal near the broken trend line resistance (1.3230) level will be an excellent short entry. The FED has also clearly indicated there is no chance of interest rate hike in the month of October and November.TO be precise the US dollar has very little strength to fight with the Canadian dollar. But the oil price is also trembling which has brought back the US dollar back in the game. A clear break of the 1.3230 level will bring strong upward rally towards the1.3630 level.

Technically the pair has very little room to move in the north. Selling the pair at a higher price will provide excellent risk reward ratio. The first support for this pair is at 1.2900 level. A clear decisive break of that level will bring strong downward rally towards the low of 18th August 2016.Traders are expecting a minor bounce from that level since the medium term uptrend line also lies there. Those who are interested in the buying this pair should use price action confirmation signal to buy this pair near the trend line support zone at 1.2860 level. Considering all the technical and fundamental parameters we are expecting a ranging move in the USDCAD pair. There will be no strong trending move until the pair manages to breach above the 1.3260 level. For bearish rally the needs to break the key support at 1.2810 level.