Job market, inflation and cuts
|Home sales didn‘t bring about the (Monday missed) correction, intraday gains for clients followed, but most importantly the called as not to be bearish MU earnings delivered a great lift to Nasdaq and semis prices after the close. Hence, the title of yesterday‘s article „ES 5,805 Waiting“ came true in a few hours, as we‘re no longer waiting for 5,805 beat.
Today and tomorrow are data heavy, and for now the rising odds of rate cuts (Sep 50bp odds are up) aren‘t reflected in market rates (on a daily basis ever since the pre FOMC setback to bonds called) – rising yields are taken as a sign of both reasonably OK economy (see XLY if in doubt, this wouldn‘t surge going into recession, would it) and Fed rate cutting plans (however paced) affecting future inflation.
Yesterday‘s 5y auction was good, fetching 3.52% - no panic, and short-term yields remaining very low still, can be enjoyed while it lasts (TLT would also return to ascent and overcome 101 comfortably before year‘s end).
Let‘s check bonds, and two S&P 500 charts next (one for yesterday‘s prediction, and the other after the close).
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