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Analysis

Investors and traders were glued to the TV in the morning as the grilling started

Investors and traders were glued to the TV in the morning as the grilling started. Marky Zuckerberg, the FB CEO, was on the hot seat. What was supposed to be a hearing on LIBRA cryptocurrency turned into a grilling for Zuckerberg. He had to defend issues of privacy, data, trust, child pornography, the spread of misinformation and credibility, all while vowing to move ahead with his plans to create a "cryptocurrency based payments system" no matter what Representative Maxine Waters (Dem, CA) says or Senator and Presidential candidate Lizzy Warren (Dem, MA) threaten to do. (Now recall that Lizzy has floated the idea of ‘breaking it up' – the way they did in the 80's when they blew AT&T apart – creating a family of baby bells).

The tone was edgy right from the start. The smoke from the 2016 Presidential election was still hanging over him as many members of congress (and the public) are still outraged over the role that FB played in that election. This highlights the potential for abuse, how FB handles personal data, the spread of misinformation, and freedom of speech. Concerns over FB's lack of controls were key issues given its poor record of handling user data while being at the center of the spread of "misinformation". Right out of the gate, he was clearly uncomfortable — squirming in his seat — as the grilling began. Seemingly unable to answer any of the questions directly, but being kind enough to thank each member of the committee for asking "that great question!" (Just an observation — can someone tell him to lose the 3rd grade haircut? I mean can you really take him seriously when he looks like it's his first day of school?)

OK, now back to stocks. They moved higher yesterday even in the face of some significant misses. (Think FED cut next week). CAT, BA, TXN, and LLY, all big names, and they all missed... While both CAT and BA missed substantially, investor s ate it up after they punched them in the face, knocking the stocks down in the pre-market and only to run in and scoop them up once the day began. By the end of the day, CAT rose 1.2% and BA added 1%, while TXN lost 7% and LLY gave up 2%. This left investors and traders to consider the bigger picture as the broader market remained in a narrow range in what many described as listless.

We keep talking about this. The expectations for this quarter were not robust at all as we have to deal with the ongoing trade war and a slowing global economy. But many of the companies that have reported so far have not disappointed. They have managed to beat the estimates (estimates that have been slashed, resulting in a low bar). But that doesn't matter. What matters is that they beat AND most of them are NOT giving negative forward guidance. This is causing the algos to go all in.

By the end of the day, the Dow added 45 pts, the S&P was ahead by 8 pts, the Nasdaq gained 15 pts and the Russell added 2 pts.

After the bell, we heard from Tesla. They also reported a surprise profit, although they missed on revenues. They are "making great strides in controlling costs" while they launched a new facility in China and production of its new Model Y is ahead of schedule. They took the stock up 18% in the afterhours session, which is apparently carrying over to pre-market trading now as the investors in this name celebrate. Expect other sexy growth names to respond in kind today as well as the excitement spreads.

Today will be the biggest day for earnings as we are about to get hit with better than 40 names: Dow, 3M, Southwest Air, Comcast, American Air, Twitter, Amazon, Intel, and Visa are but a few of the many that will walk the runway today.

US futures are up (again) as the expectation is for more "good news." Dow futures are gaining 25 pts, S&P's are up 4, the Nasdaq is ahead by 36 pts and the Russell is +3.

Now that being said, we continue to struggle right here. The S&P is teasing with the century mark, attempting to pierce up and thru only to hit resistance and back off. But, at some point it will make it. My sense is though, that is not today. I continue to believe that the broader market will test lower, not crash. It will just test the 2850 level before it gets the strength to move significantly higher. For now, we remain in the 2975/3015 range. If today's reports continue to beat and the guidance continues to be upbeat, then maybe we will see the push. But my gut says "not yet."

On the economic front, we will get Durable Goods, Cap Goods, Ordered and Capital Goods Shipped, New Home Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims. While these macro data points are important, my guess is that no one will really pay any attention at all. Unless they miss the expectations (which they won't), today's eco data is a non-event.

In Europe, the markets are higher (better earnings). Today is the final appearance for Uncle Mario (Draghi) and the ECB. I will admit, I thought is was last month when they announced Christine Legarde would take over his position. But, I guess they gave her a month to get comfortable before they let her run. We will hear from him and the ECB (European Central Bank) at about 8 am. But don't expect anything that will move the markets. Recall, it was only 6 weeks ago when he announced that new massive stimulus program. He is NOT announcing anything else today other than to formally introduce Ms. Legarde.

BREXIT continues to be the story. The next move is up to the EU, will they grant the extension requested or not? If they do, then expect that UK Prime Minister BoJo to call for a new general election before Christmas as he will try to solidify his hold on the nation.

What about European macro data? Eurozone flash PMIs slightly below the expectations.

Services PMI came in at 51.8 (est was 51.9), and Manufacturing PMIs came in at 45.7 (est 46). Recall that anything below 50 is considered contractionary.

Oil continues to churn, rising yesterday only to fall today. Demand concerns are still at the top of the list even though we had a "surprise" drop in crude inventories. Yet investors still expect more cuts by OPEC to help support prices. Weaker macro data from the US and Europe is fueling the chatter about future weaker demand. Again, it's not a demand issue at all. It's a supply issue. Whatever fits your argument, weaker demand or oversupply produce the same result: lower prices... period.

 

Chicken Cutlets in a Lemon Walnut Sauce

Lemons and walnuts have always been considered food for the Gods... so today - let's feed the Gods... with Chicken Cutlets...

This is different and not something that you might put together or even thinks goes together... but it is simple to make and will fast become a family favorite. For this you need:

Boneless Chicken breast (preferably thin sliced). If not then you can pound them. Flour, olive oil (I use butter), fresh chopped parsley, lemon zest, lemon juice, walnuts, diced onion and chicken broth.

Begin by dredging the cutlets in seasoned flour (S&P). Shake the excess off. Set aside.

In a lg frying pan - heat up some olive oil (w some butter) and sauté the diced onion until soft — maybe 8-10 mins... Do not burn.

Remove the onions and set aside.

Next, add the chicken breasts and brown on both sides.

While browning - chop the walnuts and mix with the chopped parsley and lemon zest - not too much but enough so that you get the flavor....(if unsure - add less and taste..you can always add more).

When the cutlets are browned on both sides. Add the chicken broth — enough to bathe them - do not drown. Add in the onions and about a tblsp of lemon juice — cover and simmer for about 5 mins...

Remove the chicken and set on a warmed serving platter leaving the juice in the pan. Turn up the heat to med-hi and add the walnuts/parsley/zest. Allow the juice to thicken a bit — should be no more than 3 mins max. Pour the sauce over the cutlets and serve with roasted potatoes and maybe some sautéed spinach and a large mixed salad dressed in a champagne vinaigrette.

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