Has the metals selling stopped?

• The Dollar finally sees some selling on Friday.

• The metals rally strongly in the overnight markets.

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, I was so excited one minute and then let down the next minute, watching my beloved Mizzou Tigers this past weekend... This is a memo to all defense Coordinators, college or pro.... "The Prevent Defense Doesn't Work!" I shook my head in total disgust, watching that happen Saturday.... Oh well, it's just a game... That the Tigers should have won! You see? I was a real hot head when I was a young man, and I would have been throwing things if I were still a hot head.... The Mason Embry Trio greets me this morning with their version of the song: This Christmas...

Well, Friday, saw the dollar get sold a little bit, with the BBDXY losing 3 index points, and end the week at $1,285... The weaker dollar, for a day, didn't help the currencies much, nor did it help Gold & Silver... The selling of Gold & Silver abated a bit on Friday, but in the end the two were down for the day... Gold closed the week at $2,563, and Silver closed at $30.30... There was an article on the paid subscriber side of CNBC on Friday that asked the question: Buying opportunity or time to bail? What to do with gold following the postelection selloff...

And then it cut off and wouldn't let me read any more of the article... Stupid CNBC! I would hope that they would come to the conclusion that investors should use these cheaper levels to back up the truck.. But I guess, I'll never know... Oh, well, knowing CNBC they didn't mention price manipulation or short futures trades, so I didn't lose any sleep over not being able to read it. 

The price of Oil slipped a buck on Friday and ended the week trading with a $67 handle... And the 10-year Treasury's yield ended the week at 4.46%.... 

The Big News last week was a statement from the chief Fed Head, Jerome Powell, who said, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates" And brother did that send the markets into a tizzy! They weren't expecting to hear anything like that coming from Powell.... He didn't go as far as saying that rates could be raised instead.... But according to the markets he might as well have said that, because that's what they heard! And that has given the bond boys affirmation that their marking up of yields was the right thing to do! 

Of course, I don't know what set of data that Powell was looking at for his view that the economy is strong and doesn't need more rate cuts.... In just the last week, we've seen Factory Orders print negative, and Industrial Production print negative.... And Capacity utilization drop for a second consecutive month...

These are REAL ECONOMIC DATA Prints, Jerome.... Please make sure you look at them before making any comments about a strong economy.... 

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar drifted higher by 1 index point in the BBDXY, but Gold is knocking it out of the park this morning, as it rallies by $32 in the early trading.... Silver is up 49-cents this morning, so out Monday and week is starting out on a good foot... Below, Ed Steer says that if the current selling cycle is over, we won't have to wait long for a rally in the metals.... And so, I'm with him on that, given the rally in the early trading today.... Gold was very near the "oversold position", and that has helped turn it around too.... The price of Oil remained trading with a $67 handle overnight, and the 10-year's yield bumped higher to 4.47%.... 

I'm very happy to see Gold & Silver back on the rally tracks.... And am wondering how many investors took advantage of the cheaper metals' prices last week? it's not too late, as Gold is still below $2,600, and Silver is below $31.00, and when the metals rally really swings into gear, those levels will be far figures in the metal's rear-view mirror... And not the one that says, Object my appear larger.... The one over the dash! I know I didn't have to explain that to you dear reader, but the writing teacher's words hung on my mind this morning to not leave the reader wondering what the hell I was talking about! 

Well, Retail Sales in the U.S. were up last month, and it showed that consumers are getting ahead of the Christmas Shopping Season... The BHI indicated to me last week that Retail Sales would be stronger, and they were! I think people are past where we were a few years ago, when Retail Sales in December were negative! Nowadays, consumer just run up the credit cards and then hope that the Gov't bails them out.... Because it will take an EON for consumers to pay them off! 

I wanted to get that out there on Retail Sales and not wait for the U.S. Data Cupboard discussion... 

Ed Steer had this to say about Gold & Silver's direction in his Saturday letter that can be found :www.edsteergoldsilver.com.... here's Ed: "It would appear that this current 'wash, rinse & spin cycle' is now much closer to its end, than its beginning -- and where we go from here...and how soon...is anyone's guess. I don't pretend to know...but suspect we won't have to wait long."

Chuck again... Sure, the game is played by the short paper traders to sell Gold & Silver until they get all the short term holders out of the market, and then come back in and buy the heck out of the metals, and when the metals reach a level that makes the short paper traders smile, they sell the heck out of the metals again.... The thing to keep in mind before you think, why would I want to be involved in that?, that Gold has climbed above the previous high it held in the ensuing rally, so it's not that bad! HA! 

Well, I came across this little ditty on zerohedge.com and it talks about how Russian Gas Co, Gazprom has decided, "no gas for you!" Here's the skinny: "Starting November 16, Austria is off the guest list for Russian natural gas, following a €230 million ($242 million) arbitration spat between Gazprom and Austria’s OMV AG. OMV, refusing to let that cash slip away, decided to withhold payments to Gazprom.

Chuck again... Seems about right to me, unfortunately, this non-deliver of natural gas comes at a bad time... Winter i just around the corner... It's sort of like the sgt in the Airplane movie, Steve McCroskey who said, "Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking".  I don't know about you, but that movie still cracks me up... That and the movie Night Shift, still cracks me up....

Speaking of cracking me up... I'm currently watching the 2nd Season of the show: Shrinking.... I have to wait each week for Wednesday when the new episode is released... But it's worth the wait! 

The Gold Bug, Judy Shelton, she of failed run at a seat on the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, just wrote a book, and in the book she talks about the return of a Gold standard, and that it would be easy to do.... She also discusses the idea of making some Treasuries Gold Backed... Think about the genius of that idea... The deficit spending would be cut dramatically because the U.S. would be on the hook for the bonds, they issued to finance the debt, with Gold.... I went out to Amazon and ordered the book so I can read more.... And when I do, I'll report on what she had to say, here.... 

And the rally in yields, bond selloff in price, is beginning to weigh on the stock jockeys...  The Fed Rate cuts haven't had any effect on bond yields, and that brings me to the idea that "be careful what you wish for.... " So, why hasn't the rate cuts had any effect on the yields, other than to make them rise? Well, in my humble opinion, the bond boys didn't believe the Fed heads cut rates while inflation was still above their target rate, and they thought, the Fed Heads will be back to hiking rates soon enough, so no reason for us to make owing Treasuries, like the Tower of Terror ride.... 

I even told you when the Fed Heads cut rates 50 Basis Points to end their rate hike cycle, that they would end up being sorry they did that, because this scenario was so similar to what Paul Volcker experienced back in the day... Inflation was falling and Volcker decided to jump the line early and be a Sooner, and cut rates, only to find that he had to come back and raise them again a few months later..... History... It may not always repeat itself, but it's always near the scene of the crime! I'm just saying.... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is void of many real economic data prints this week... We'll have to wait until Thursday to see the Leading Indicators for this month... Until then, we'll see a lot of housing data that really doesn't move the markets much these days... And we already talked about Retail Sales last week.... A very strong print, thus indicating to me that consumers are getting ahead of their Christmas Shopping Season.... 

To recap... The dollar finally saw a bit of selling on Friday....Gold & Sliver tried to play off the weaker dollar but couldn't leave the short paper traders at the door.... Chief Fed Head, Jerome Powell, said that the Fed Heads were not in a hurry to cut rates, of which the markets took as a sign that the next move will be a rate hike? What a bunch of dolts! His statement doesn't mean a hill of beans.... Remember "higher & Longer"? and how did that work out? I'm just saying

For What It's Worth... This article is by Matthew Piepenburg of Gold Switzerland, of whom I used here several time through the years... Whatever Matthew writes about, I want to read it, and you should too! I'm just saying.... 

Here's your snippet: "A Weaker Dollar?

What we do know is that change is certainly coming, and despite the DXY’s impressive climb of relative strength (which does matter), we should expect to see a USD that trends weaker rather than stronger in the next four years.

Why?

Well, for one thing, both Trump and Harris have been saying so throughout their campaigns.

And despite Powell’s aborted “higher-for-longer” (i.e., pro-DXY) campaign of 2022-2023, even Janet Yellen and Jake Sullivan have been operating openly and covertly toward a weaker USD.

I, too, have argued and foreseen the same, not because it’s fashionable as a gold executive to be anti-fiat, but because a weaker dollar is the only Realpolitik way out of the United States’ sovereign debt trap.

Throughout history and without exception, whenever a debt-corned nation is forced to choose between its currency and bond market, the currency has always been sacrificed.

Always.

In other words, the US needs a weaker dollar."

Chuck again... Matthew goes on to talk about Gold, which he is prone to do... He's a "got to read this guy" 

Market Prices 11/18/2024: American Style: A$ .6563, kiwi .5841, C$ .7097, euro 1.0540, sterling 1.2628, Swiss 1.1261, European Style: rand 18.0987, krone 11.1137, SEK 11.0051, forint 387.77, zloty 4.1046, koruna 23.9625, RUB 100.33, yen 155.14, sing 1.3446, HKD 7.7842, INR 84.29, China 7.2419, peso 20.40, BRL 5.7928, BBDXY 1286, Dollar Index 106.80, Oil $67.40, 10-year 4.47%, Silver $30.86, Platinum $960.00, Palladium $978.00, Copper $4.11, and Gold.... $2,595.30.

That's it for today... Well, I have a busy week ahead of me this week... Today I go for my annual Medicare Wellness checkup, tomorrow I go for scans, Wednesday I go to the surgeon who is going to de-bulk this tumor in my mouth, and on Thursday I have a happy hour with my classmates! I doubt I would pass any health test... But to see that I'm still alive and functioning should be good! Better living through chemistry is what I always tell the doctors... And they get it.... Sorry for the rant above today in the intro.... I had to yell at someone, so I yelled at the walls! And my laptop monitor! And if you didn't get what I was referring to: Mizzou lost with 15 seconds left in the game! J. Daniel Davidson takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: What Child Is This? I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!