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Analysis

Gold's continues higher after Fed rate cut decision

  • The Federal Reserve's rate cut of 50 basis points has caused significant volatility in gold and silver markets.

  • Gold prices may fluctuate depending on future Fed actions and economic conditions, but it remains a safe-haven asset during uncertainty.

  • Spot gold recently dropped after the rate cut but is rebounding, with technical patterns suggesting a potential surge higher.

The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5% has induced significant volatility in gold and silver. Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks emphasize a cautious approach to managing economic growth and inflation, highlighting the Fed's confidence in the labor market's strength while acknowledging downside risks to employment. A rate cut reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, potentially making gold more attractive. As interest rates decline, the U.S. dollar typically weakens, and lower real yields can increase demand for gold as a hedge against currency depreciation and economic uncertainty.

Powell's comments about inflation being "much closer to our goal" and the Fed's readiness to "adjust policy as necessary" indicate a careful balance between fostering economic growth and keeping inflation in check. This careful balance suggests that the Fed is open to further rate adjustments based on evolving economic conditions, which can lead to periods of increased market volatility. For gold, this means that while the immediate impact of a rate cut can be supportive, the precious metal's price might continue to experience fluctuations depending on the Fed's future actions and the trajectory of inflation and employment data. Given that gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, economic uncertainty or perceived instability in monetary policy can drive investors towards gold, pushing its price higher.

Spot gold experienced a significant drop following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, as anticipated, and is now rebounding from the support level. Previously, it was indicated that this drop would present a buying opportunity since the overall trend remains bullish with strong upward patterns. The formation of an ascending broadening pattern and the strong consolidation within this pattern suggest that the gold market is likely to surge higher.


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