Gold, Silver and Oil battle rising yields – Who wins?
|S&P 500 rose also after the opening bell, and clients were ready with the weekend upswing call thanks to notable breadth improvement. For all the sectoral risk-on positioning, the mid-session selling coinciding with not bullishly received Treasuries auction, was discouraging to bulls relying on CES push for most of the tech names (it‘ll be pretty selective).
As I asked on the weekend, is the glass half empty or half full?
Much depends upon the services PMI and JOLTs (openings and quits data aftermath – can‘t be too low (e.g. <51 for services PMI) as the notion of corporate profitability can‘t be doubted while rates are refusing to decline. Buying at the close is what was present both Friday and yesterday, which hints at much, who wants to accumulate here.
So, are we going to get more bullish signs today in spite of the ominously looking long lower knot of yesterday‘s candle? Following up on the extensive weekend video with today‘s upcoming contribution (thanks for subscribing to the channel and liking the videos, it helps much), I‘m laying out what‘s worth looking at, and drawing conclusions for clients.
The goal is to have more great days on par with yesterday‘s quick intraday Russell 2000 short and Ellin‘s successes.
Let‘s mve right into the charts – today‘s full scale article contains 3 more of them, with commentaries.
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Gold, Silver and Miners
Gold continued on a poor note yesterday, yet is positioning for undershoot of a bit lofty data expectations – pretty difficult chart still, and whether I would have to picks bears or bulls to move with vengeance one day soon, it would be bears. Job market data this week wouldn‘t reveal negative economic surprises, so the weekend talked „higher for longer“ as a stiff headwind applies.
Crude Oil
Oil spent more time at my $74 target – rolling over takes time, and this (perceived high inflation) hedge has still some reckoning to do with the developing deflationary forces in Q1 2025. Bearish patience will be rewarded, and selling into fresh spike towards $75 whenever DBC weakens below $21.60 is a good idea.
Long and steady sugar descent also confirms that rising inflation isn‘t an immediate problem down the road – commodities investors better wait for USD topping out before initiating longs (in the meantime, look for select pockets of strength as cocoa or coffee was in 2024 – Trading Signals clients have the highest priority degree of individual 1:1 support, and I still suggest looking at agrifoods).
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