Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD could test $2,475, as $2,500 gives way
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UPGRADE- Gold price extends losses to a six-day low below $2,500 early Monday.
- The US Dollar looks to build the recovery amid light trading and a cautious mood.
- The daily RSI stays bullish but a test of 21-day SMA at $2,475 looks likely before Gold buyers jump in.
Gold price languishes in six-day lows below $2,500 early Monday, extending the previous week’s downtrend following the constant rejection near $2,530 on Thursday.
Gold price looks to top-tier US data for a fresh lift
Gold sellers retain control, courtesy of the sustained recovery in the US Dollar (USD) against its rivals after Friday’s US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which poured cold water on the market expectations of a bigger interest-rate reduction by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this month. Data on Friday showed that the US core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose 2.6% YoY and 0.2% MoM in August almost in line with expectations.
In the wake of a potentially less aggressive easing cycle to be launched by the Fed, the US Dollar recovery gained traction alongside that of the US Treasury bond yields, smashing the non-interest-bearing Gold price 1% lower on Friday.
Markets currently price in a 67% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) cut by the Fed at its September 17-18 policy meeting and a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, keeping the downside pressure intact around the Gold price, as the USD extends the previous losses.
Further, it’s a US Labor Day holiday, and therefore, thin liquidity could exaggerate the bearish momentum in Gold price, also as traders reposition ahead of the high-impact US economic data releases due later this week, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment Change and the Nonfarm Payrolls.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Even though the technical indicators continue to favor the uptrend, the extension of the corrective downside in Gold price could be in the offing.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points sharply lower, heading to challenge the 50 level, justifying the ongoing weakness in Gold price.
Goild sellers target the immediate support of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,475, below which the symmetrical triangle resistance-turned-support at $2,463 will be challenged.
Defending the latter is critical to sustain the August uptrend for Gold buyers. A failure to hold above that level could initiate a fresh downtrend toward the $2,420 area, where the triangle support line and the 50-day SMA merge.
On the flip side, if Gold buyers settle Monday above the 21-day SMA at $2,475, a rebound toward the $2,500 level could be seen.
Acceptance above the latter could once again put the previous record high near $2,530 to test.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- Gold price extends losses to a six-day low below $2,500 early Monday.
- The US Dollar looks to build the recovery amid light trading and a cautious mood.
- The daily RSI stays bullish but a test of 21-day SMA at $2,475 looks likely before Gold buyers jump in.
Gold price languishes in six-day lows below $2,500 early Monday, extending the previous week’s downtrend following the constant rejection near $2,530 on Thursday.
Gold price looks to top-tier US data for a fresh lift
Gold sellers retain control, courtesy of the sustained recovery in the US Dollar (USD) against its rivals after Friday’s US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which poured cold water on the market expectations of a bigger interest-rate reduction by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this month. Data on Friday showed that the US core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose 2.6% YoY and 0.2% MoM in August almost in line with expectations.
In the wake of a potentially less aggressive easing cycle to be launched by the Fed, the US Dollar recovery gained traction alongside that of the US Treasury bond yields, smashing the non-interest-bearing Gold price 1% lower on Friday.
Markets currently price in a 67% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) cut by the Fed at its September 17-18 policy meeting and a 33% chance of a 50 bps cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, keeping the downside pressure intact around the Gold price, as the USD extends the previous losses.
Further, it’s a US Labor Day holiday, and therefore, thin liquidity could exaggerate the bearish momentum in Gold price, also as traders reposition ahead of the high-impact US economic data releases due later this week, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment Change and the Nonfarm Payrolls.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Even though the technical indicators continue to favor the uptrend, the extension of the corrective downside in Gold price could be in the offing.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points sharply lower, heading to challenge the 50 level, justifying the ongoing weakness in Gold price.
Goild sellers target the immediate support of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,475, below which the symmetrical triangle resistance-turned-support at $2,463 will be challenged.
Defending the latter is critical to sustain the August uptrend for Gold buyers. A failure to hold above that level could initiate a fresh downtrend toward the $2,420 area, where the triangle support line and the 50-day SMA merge.
On the flip side, if Gold buyers settle Monday above the 21-day SMA at $2,475, a rebound toward the $2,500 level could be seen.
Acceptance above the latter could once again put the previous record high near $2,530 to test.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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