FX weekly — DXY and 14 currency pair levels and targets
|The number 2 in markets is explained by 0.02 or broken down as 0.01 and 0.01. EUR/USD within the past 6 weeks during the current Fed inter period meeting traded 0.03 or 300 pips from 1.1100 to 1.0800's. GBP/USD only managed 0.02 from 1.2827 to 1.2596 while AUD/USD matched EUR/USD at 0.02 from 0.6870 to 0.6524. NZD/USD matched EUR/USD and AUD/USD at 0.03 from 0.6368 to 0.6061.
USD/USD traded an 0.03 move from 1.3500 to 1.3100 while DXY traded 0.02. USD/JPY was the clear winner at 0.08 or 800 pips.
Markets from 0.03 actually traded 0.015 for 3 weeks and 0.005 or 50 pips per week for each of 6 weeks.
Life in markets, trading and economics can't ever escape the foundation and creation of 0.01.
Economic releases = 0.01
Currencies 0.01
Stock Market 0.01
USDJPY and JPY Cross Pairs 0.01
Interest rates 0.01
Yields and Interest rates 0.01
Inflation and GDP 0.01
Imports and Exports 0.01
Economics six weeks
Inflation +0.03 Vs GDP -0.01. The 10Y yield +0.004 Vs 2Y yield +0.003, DXY +0.02.
WTI was the 6 week story from the 0.08 rise from 69.00 to 78.00.
FED Funds 0.02
During the 6 week inter meeting period, Fed funds traded a maximum range from 5.30 to 5.50 or 0.20 or more specific days from 5.30 to 5.48 at 0.18.
The 0.2 range X the 50 pips per week factors as 0.10 or 0.001 and bringss us back to the 0.01 foundation.
All central banks trade interest rates as the FED to the same rates and ranges.
Every market price on the planet and every economic release trades 0.01. No distinction exists from central bank to central bank.
Fed
Raise, lower and remain on hold means the same 0.01 and 0.02 trades. The difference is the market and economic numbers will change but ranges remain the same as previous.
The market price and economics shows percentages but as a percentage of what.
The question for Powell is when will interest rate ranges expand to allow wider market price ranges.
Weekly
Market prices this week and for the past 6 weeks trades dead ranges. As forecasted for 2024, more of the same is expected.
EUR/USD traded 120 pips last week Vs 111 pips in the previous week. Break at 1.0869 targets 1.0906 while EUR/USD bottoms at 1.0823 for the week.
EUR/USD traded the traditional down month for January and 300 pips lower. We begin to investigate for longer term long trades for the remainder year.
GBP/USD trades 1.2795 to 1.2635 and 1.2616. Overbought begins anywhere near 1.2760.
AUD/USD Higher must break 0.6591 to target 0.6634. AUD/USD ranges from 0.6591 to 0.6774 and trades oversold.
NZD/USD ranges from 0.6113 to 0.6280. For the week, NZD trades 0.6040 to 0.6177.
USD/JPY begins the week deeply overbought at any 148.00 price and targets easily 147.59 then 147.32, 147.05.Short only for USD/JPY all week.
GBP/JPY also begins the week massive overbought at any 188.00 price. Short all week is the only strategy to target 187.14 then 186.52.
CAD/JPY from 110.00's trades massive overbought and will follow GBP/JPY lower. CAD/JPY targets easily 109.42 then 109.24.
EUR/JPY targets again 159.86 while overbought CHF/JPY targets 170.66 then 170.06.
Best trades for the week is short USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs.
Massive overbought GBP/NZD targets 2.0783 easily then 2.0766.
EUR/NZD targets the break at 1.7783 then 1.7718.
GBP/AUD overbought is the better trade to EUR/AUD and targets 1.9221.
EM
EM currencies either as USD/EM or EUR/EM trade as G28 currencies in tiny ranges.
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