FX weekly — DXY and 14 currency pair levels and targets
|EUR/USD broke above vital 1.1055 and 1.1057 to trade 1.1139 and just prior to the 5 year average at 1.1159. EUR/USD then traded lows to 1.1033. EUR/USD remains overbought from lower averages and despite overbought, EUR/USD cross pairs across the board trade deeply oversold.
Oversold cross pairs applies to EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD. For the week, EUR/USD targets 1.0980 on a break of 1.1007. The target at 1.0980 trades just before big lines at 1.0953 and 1.0931.
For January, shorts are located at any price around the 5 year average at 1.1159. EUR/USD line up as follows: 1.0899, 1.0891, 1.1061, 1.1159, 1.1275, 1.1522.
Similiar to EUR/USD, GBP/USD traded to the 5 year average at 1.2832 then reversed. GBP/USD trades overbought while GBP cross pairs begin the week oversold. Oversold GBP cross pairs include GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD.
GBP/USD's lower target is located just prior to 1.2653 on a break at 1.2710. GBP/USD's big lines below at 1.2500's are many and solid nor expected to break anytime soon. GBP/USD current range trades from 1.2584, 1.2596, 1.2785, 1.2832, 1.3154, 1.3557.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD trade dead center to historic ranges yet overbought. Both overbought EUR/USD and GBP/USD trade contradictionary to oversold cross pairs. A lower EUR/USD and GBP/USD would create a powerful position to align cross pairs for longs to GBP and EUR across the board.
USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs remains the big profit trades for 2024 and the same situation as 2023. Preference for USD/JPY and JPY cross pairs is due to ability to trade freely in wide ranges as JPY averages trade far and wide.
USD/JPY and JPY cross trade deeply oversold. USD/JPY targets middle 143.00's. Overall, USD/JPY's 144.00 line is falling against current prices.
Long term targets hold as posted December 10th.
USD/JPY : 146.07, 138.01, 133.26, 129.72.
GBP/JPY: 181.06, 172.87, 168.89, 167.40.
EUR/JPY: 157.78, 150.05, 145.89, 143.39.
CAD/JPY: 107.74, 102.97, 100.21, 98.59.
CHF/JPY: 164.20, 153.01, 146.39, 141.63.
AUD/JPY: 95.49, 92.22, 90.78, 89.91.
NZD/JPY: 88.58, 85.51, 83.98, 82.83.
AUD/USD remains overbought and trades from 0.6651, 0.6780, 0.6952 and the 5 year average at 0.6994. AUD/USD requires a break at 0.6780 to target lower prices.
NZD/USD lower must break 0.6281 to trade the range from 0.6281 to 0.6162.
EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD
EUR/AUD trades massive oversold and sits just above vital averages at 1.6081, 1.5972 at the 5 year average and 1.5935. A break of current averages is not expected and long targets are located at middle 1.6300's.
GBP/AUD also trades deeply oversold from current range 1.8414 and 1.8579 to 1.8945. Good target at 1.8000's is easily achievable on a break of 1.8760.
Long is the onlt available strategy for EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.
USD/CHF and CHF cross pairs all trade deeply oversold.
DXY is the exclusive driver to currency markets as DXY dropped 700 pips in the past 3 months. DXY recovery higher contains vital averages at 101.00's and every 100 pips. Same DXY story as we've seen in the past year as averages build every 100 pips on the up and downside price moves.
USD/CAD trades oversold and the 5 year average is located at 1.3145. USD/CAD ranges from 1.3145, 1.3207, 1.3311 and 1.3441.
EUR/NZD trades oversold and overall inside a range from 1.7698 to 1.7362 and 1.7143. GBP/NZD ranges from 2.0252 to 2.0020.
EUR/EM
Best shorts for the week are EUR/CZK, EUR/INR, EUR/KRW,
USD/EM
Brest trades: USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, USD/MYR, USD/RON.
The vast majority of EM currencies are either locked in small ranges or USD/EM Vs EUR/EM are in contention to both as oversold or overbought.
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