Forecasting the Coming Week: US inflation takes centre stage
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UPGRADEAs markets gradually return to normal activity following Christmas and New Year festivities, the focus of attention is expected to shift to the publication of US inflation figures for the month of December (January 11).
In fact, investors will look to further confirmation of disinflationary pressures in the US economy, always against the backdrop of rising speculation of the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to materialize at some point in the spring, with March being a most-likely candidate. This view continues to be the almost exclusive driver behind the dollar’s price action, in a context where EUR/USD flirted with the psychological 1.1000 barrier in the wake of US Payrolls on Friday.
Other important data releases in the US includes the November Trade Balance (January 9), the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims (January 11) and Producer Prices (January 12).
Closer to home, Industrial Production, Trade Balance results and Factory Orders should keep Germany in the centre of the debate in the next seven days.
Across the Channel, GDP figures, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production will grab attention towards the end of the week.
In China, December CPI is due along with the always-relevant Trade Balance readings (January 12).
Inflation will also be in the spotlight in Australia on January 10.
In the central banks’ realm, the Bank of Korea (BoK) meets on January 11 and is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%.
As markets gradually return to normal activity following Christmas and New Year festivities, the focus of attention is expected to shift to the publication of US inflation figures for the month of December (January 11).
In fact, investors will look to further confirmation of disinflationary pressures in the US economy, always against the backdrop of rising speculation of the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to materialize at some point in the spring, with March being a most-likely candidate. This view continues to be the almost exclusive driver behind the dollar’s price action, in a context where EUR/USD flirted with the psychological 1.1000 barrier in the wake of US Payrolls on Friday.
Other important data releases in the US includes the November Trade Balance (January 9), the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims (January 11) and Producer Prices (January 12).
Closer to home, Industrial Production, Trade Balance results and Factory Orders should keep Germany in the centre of the debate in the next seven days.
Across the Channel, GDP figures, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production will grab attention towards the end of the week.
In China, December CPI is due along with the always-relevant Trade Balance readings (January 12).
Inflation will also be in the spotlight in Australia on January 10.
In the central banks’ realm, the Bank of Korea (BoK) meets on January 11 and is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%.
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