Financial astrology for the successful investor and trader
|1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
1. We repeat: Unlike 2018, Markets in 2019 will NOT be easy to forecast - requiring both a longer investment horizon AND a shorter trading one!
-
WE ALSO BELIEVE MARKETS WILL CLOSE HIGHER IN 2019 than 2018! Additionally,
-
We expect it to TRADE ABOVE ITS 2017 CLOSE &
-
Be defensive H1 2019 (esp. Q2); Be more aggressive H2 2019.
Our 2019 recommendations:
-
Be Selective - Stock Picking will outperform Index Investing
-
We continue to recommend trailing profit stops and hedging, raising cash and/or writing calls to promote sound sleep.
-
New trades & investments best in Long/Short Pairs in H1 2019
While many “concerns” are simply, three we are watching are:
-
The market’s short term reaction to trade wars;
-
China Internal & External response to its 2019 Saturn influence;
-
The January FOMC meeting anticipation & reactions.
BOTTOM LINE
WE THINK MARKETS WILL REACT POSITIVELY TO #1 & 3 NEAR TERM, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE RISK WITH SUCH A BET.
HENCE WE ADVISE INVESTORS TO BE LARGELY CONSERVATIVE & DEFENSIVE, ESPECIALLY Q2 2019.
Proper Valuations:
- TIPS ~ 110
IMHO “Improper” Valuations
DJIA < 24000
US 10 Year Bond <2.75
OIL < 55
COPPER < 3.20
BITCOIN > 2500
GOLD < 1375
SILVER < 18
TRADING NOTES
January is potentially an up month but also with potential major hiccups: given a strong US economy and a mixed horoscope for President Trump in H1 2019.
DJIA, NASDAQ & SPX can rally again as THE US TRADE WARS ARE WON and especially if the FED relaxes as it now seems more willing to do!
Remember our Trading Plan: Not to short aggressively before May 2019.
TRADING HEDGES:
Sell Oil 73.50/Buy Copper 2.95
Oil unwound 68.00 Resold 72.50 Unwind 64 Long 50
Sell Oil 74.00/Buy Copper 2.83
Oil unwound 66.20 Resell 74 Unwind 66 Long 50.50
Sell Oil 73.33/Buy Copper 2.75
Oil unwound 68.20 Resell 76 Unwind 68.65 Long 46
Buy Gold 1188/Sell BTC 6380
Buy Gold 1182/Sell BTC 6650
Buy Gold 1196 /Sell BTC 7370
Long Copper 2.70/Short BTC 6666
MARKERS | DJIA | SPX | NASDAQ | SILVER | GOLD | COPPER | BONDS | OIL | BITCOIN |
2018 CLOSE |
23327 |
2506 | 6635 | 15.64 | 1281 | 2.63 | 2.65 | 45.41 | 3768 |
1/04/2019 |
23433 |
2531 | 6738 | 15.73 | 1286 | 2.67 | 2.66 | 4825 | 3840 |
PIVOTS | 23067 | 2484 | 6635 | 15.50 | 1270 | 2.68 | 2.65 | 45 | 4000 |
SUPPORT | 23067 | 2444 | 6335 | 15 | 1250 | 2.68 | 2.65 | 44.49 | 3600? |
KEY DATES: January 7, 20/21
DJIA: Trading Target 24719
SPX: Trading Target 2673
NASDAQ: R1 6903
GOLD: R1 1300 R2 1325 R3 1350
SILVER: 1500 SUPPORT R1 15.50 R2 16 R3 18
OIL: R1 50 R2 55 R3 58 R4 60
COPPER: STEADY ACCUMULATE: H2 2018-2019 à3.50+
US 10 year Sell/Distribute 2.75 OB
BITCOIN: 4200 RESISTANCE S1 3800 S2 3500 S3 3000 S4 2500 H2 2018 à 5000 OL BULLS EYE!
The Market Marker remains some cautious concern.
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDAQ 6903
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1370
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. We are only looking at SPECIAL SITUATIONS this week awaiting CHINA TALK LEAKS & PRESS RELEASES.
3. We continue to recommend Maximum Allocation to precious and base metal investments for the intermediate and long term, given that the precious metal sector and copper are obviously very undervalued!
Now with lesser headwinds from US interest rates rising as well as less competition from MMJ & Bitcoin “investors”.
Given last week’s $1300 price, a $1350 ($1400) target test in 2019 is now closer to reality. Still, we advise patient precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection as a slowly rising tide does not float all boats equally.
-
Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
-
For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Gold FV $1368 = Commodity FV: 1340 + Currency FV: 1368 + Inflation Metal FV: 1368 + Crisis FV: 1400.
Gold/Silver ratio à 75 Silver FV $18+.
INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG in 2019 (recommending a precious metal sector hold rating and only hedging and/or selling Q2 or profit taking).
We remain disinclined to short or sell until gold is overvalued e.g. $1400-1450. For silver our first selling numbers remain $20+.
However, shorter term, after the Chinese New Year, some hedging or profit taking/protection will not be unwarranted.
4."This is a very strong jobs number. It tells us we're nowhere close to a recession."
Michael Ning, chief investment officer, PhaseCapital
HW: Currently 1.8% (1.5-.2.5)?
5.Take Five: Be careful out there! World markets themes for the week ahead
Worried about stocks? Remember ‘V’ means victory
6. THIS LEFT INTENTIONALLY BLANK
Investing subscriptions $360.
Gold Trading subscriptions $10,000 one year; $1000 Monthly. Weekly Email plus Daily Market Commentary
Platinum Commodity subscriptions $5000 monthly; $50,000 annual. Commodity Trading & Global Investing Editions
Diamond Institutional subscriptions $10,000 monthly; $108,000 annual. Institutional version includes all of the above plus multi licenses.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.