European PMIs and China 2024 targets 'in line' – Market braces for 'super Tuesday' in US

Notes/observations

- European Service PMIs were mixed in a day overshadowed by ‘Super Tuesday’ in US politics, with a collection of state democratic and GOP primaries scheduled. Former Pres Trump was given greenlight by a Supreme Court ruling to show on Colorado presidential ballot, overruling the initial state decision.

-Bitcoin approaches all-time highs as next halving approaches, latest estimates suggest timing of event on approx. 19th Apr.

- FX remains muted, with Fed Powell testimony tomorrow on Wed, in focus for US dollar sentiment. GBP currency is sideways ahead of the UK Spring Budget tomorrow. Looking further ahead, ECB decision Thurs and US payrolls on Fri.

- Asia closed mixed with Hang Seng under-performing at -2.6%. EU indices are -0.3% to +0.2%. US futures are -0.2% to -0.7%. Gold +0.5%, DXY +0.1%; Commodity: Brent -0.2%, WTI -0.4%, TTF +5.6%; Crypto: BTC +2.1%, ETH +4.8%.

Asia

- China’s annual NPC set its annual targets of ~5.0% for 2024 GDP and 3.0% for 2024 CPI (no change from year ago levels).

- China Feb Caixin PMI Services: 52.5 v 52.9e.

- Japan Feb Final PMI Services confirms 17th month of expansion (52.9 v 52.5 prelim.

- Australia Feb Final PMI Services confirms the 1st expansion in 6 months (53.1 v 52.8 prelim.

- Australia Q4 Current Account (A$): 11.8B v 5.0Be (moved back into surplus).

- Japan Feb Tokyo CPI Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.5%e; CPI (Ex-Fresh Food) Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.5%e.

- South Korea Q4 Preliminary GDP (2nd of 3 readings) Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6% advance; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2% advance.

- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Hayashi stated that the country had yet to escaped deflation at this point. Not at the stage where govt could call an end to deflation.

- Japan Econ Min Shindo refuted speculation and noted Govt was not thinking 'of declaring anything' in reference to press reports that the govt may call an official end to deflation.

Europe

- UK Feb BRC Sales LFL Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.6%e.

Americas

- Fed’s Bostic (dove, voter) stated that there was a risk that a rate cut could fuel new demand and inflation. Still expected two 25 bps rate cuts this year; would not expect that the cuts, when the start, would be back to back, but it will depend on the response.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.29% at 495.96, FTSE -0.28% at 7,618.81, DAX -0.21% at 17,672.45, CAC-40 -0.20% at 7,940.66, IBEX-35 -0.29% at 10,040.19, FTSE MIB +0.09% at 32,941.00, SMI -0.18% at 11,457.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.37%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices open lower across the board and stayed under pressure through the early part of the session; among sectors holding on to the green are financials and utilities; while sectors leading to the downside include materials industrials; Spirent Communications to be acquired by Viavi; Ercos receives takeover offer from Bondati Iberica; Caverion to merge with Assemblin; Vivendi’s Canal+ raises offer for MultiChoice; reportedly Engie looking to divest its US renewable assets; focus on US durable goods to be released later in the day; corporate events expected in the upcoming Americas session include earnings from Target and Nasdaq investor day.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Ashtead [AHT.UK] -8.0% (results), Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli [LISN.CH] +0.5% (earnings; notes GLP-1 impact)

- Materials: Fresnillo [FRES.UK] +3.5% (results)

- Healthcare: Sandoz [SDZ.CH] -3.5% (new CFO)

- Industrials: Thales [HO.FR] +7.0% (results), Traton [8TRA.DE] +2.5% (earnings), Travis Perkins [TPK.UK] +0.5% (results)

- Technology: Infineon Technologies [IFX.DE] +0.5% (Foxconn monthly sales)

- Telecom: Spirent Communications [SPT.UK] +59.5% (to be acquired at £1.75/shr by Viavi Solutions; earnings)

Speakers

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Bunge stated that was concerned about too high inflation. Although inflation outlook ws positive, vigilance was still needed

- Turkey Fin Min Simsek stated that he believed CBRT central bank has tightened policy enough

Currencies/fixed income

- Tuesday again saw limited FX movements despite a plethora of PMI Services data in Europe. Focus continues to be on key data and events. Wednesday will see UK Budget speech; Thurs with an ECB rate decision and Fri has the US non-farm payroll report. US Presidential race sees the super Tuesday primaries today. Lastly Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday,

- EUR/USD hovered around the 1.0850 level once again in a quiet session with focus on Thursday’s ECB rate decision. Currently market fully pricing a 25bps rate cut by Jun.

- GBP/USD at 1.2680 with focus on Wed UK budget speech.

- USD/JPY stayed above the 150.50 level as Japanese govt officials played down speculation it was considering announcing an official end to deflation.

Economic data

- (RU) Russia Feb Services PMI: 51.1 v 55.8 prior (13th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 52.2 v 55.1 prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Feb PMI (whole economy): 50.8 v 49.2 prior (1st expansion in 3 months).

- (SE) Sweden Feb PMI Services: 51.5 v 51.5 prior; PMI Composite: 50.1 v 50.2 prior.

- (HU) Hungary Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.0%e v 0.0% prelim; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.0% prelim.

- (FR) France Jan Industrial Production M/M: -1.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.8%e.

- (FR) France Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.6% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1 v 0.8% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Q4 Average Real Monthly Wage Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.1%e; Average Nominal Monthly Wage Y/Y: 6.3% v 7.1% prior.

- (ES) Spain Feb Services PMI: 54.7 v 53.5e (6th straight expansion); Composite PMI: 53.9 v 52.0e.

- (TW) Taiwan Feb Foreign Reserves: $569.4B v $569.5B prior.

- (IT) Italy Feb Services PMI: 52.2 v 52.3e; Composite PMI: 51.1 v 51.5e.

- (FR) France Feb Final Services PMI: 48.4 v 48.0 prelim (confirmed 9th straight contraction); Composite PMI: 48.1 v 47.7 prelim.

- (DE) Germany Feb Final Services PMI: 48.3 v 48.2 prelim (confirmed 5th straight contraction); Composite PMI: 46.2 v 46.1 prelim.

- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Final Services PMI: 50.2 v 50.0 prelim (confirms 1st non contraction in 7 months); Composite PMI: 48.9 v 48.9 prelim.

- (IT) Italy Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2% prelim; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5% prelim.

- (UK) Feb New Car Registrations Y/Y: 14.0% v 8.2% prior.

- (IS) Iceland Q4 Current Account Balance (ISK): -28.6B v +78.6B prior.

- (UK) Feb Final Services PMI: 53.8 v 54.3 prelim; Composite PMI: 53.0 v 53.3 prelim.

- (UK) Feb Official Reserves Changes: -$0.6 v -$0.7B prior.

- (ZA) South Africa Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.9%e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Jan PPI M/M: -0.1%e v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -8.1%e v -10.6% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (DE) Germany opened its book to sell 2.50% Aug 2054 bund via syndicate; guidance seen +1.75bps to Aug 2053 bund.

- (IL) Israel to sell USD-denominated 5-year, 10-year and 30-year bonds via syndicate.

- (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR7.38T vs. IDR9.0T target in Islamic bills and bonds (sukuk).

- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.11B vs. €4.5-5.5B indicated range in 6-month and 12-month bills.

- (UK) DMO sold £3.75B in 3.75% Mar 2027 Gilts; Avg Yield: 4.314% v 4.131% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.01x v 3.04x prior; Tail: 0.5bps v 0.5bps prior.

- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total €2.013B vs. €2.013B indicated in 2030 and 2034 RAGB Bonds.

Looking ahead

- (MX) Mexico CitiBanamex Survey of Economists.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €4.0B in 2.1% Apr 2029 BOBL.

- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell €1.0B in 3-month bills.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills.

- 06:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO).

- 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 06:30 (TR) Turkey Feb Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER): No est v 56.95 prior.

- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell €1.1B in 3-month Bills.

- 07:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Services PMI: No est v 53.1 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 53.2 prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.

- 09:30 (CA) Canada Feb Services PMI: No est v 45.8 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 46.3 prior.

- 09:45 (US) Feb Final Services PMI: 51.4e v 51.3 prelim; Composite PMI: 51.4e v 51.4 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Feb ISM Services Index: 53.0e v 53.4 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Jan Factory Orders: -2.9%e v 0.2% prior; Factory Orders (ex-transportation): -0.1%e v +0.4% prior.

- 10:00 (US) Jan Final Durable Goods Orders: -6.1%e v -6.1% prelim; Durables (ex-transportation): No est v -0.3% prelim; Capital Goods Orders (non-defense/ex-aircraft): No est v 0.1% prelim; Capital Goods Orders (non-defense/ex-aircraft): No est v 0.8% prelim.

- 12:00 (US) Fed’s Barr.

- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Feb Foreign Reserves: No est v $415.8B prior.

- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories.

- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Volume of all Buildings Q/Q: -1.8%e v -2.4% prior.

- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Feb CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.8% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.5% prior.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 2.1% prior.

- 21:35 (CN) China to sell 3-year Upsized Bond.

- 21:35 (CN) China to sell 1-month and 2-month bills.

Super Tuesday primaries

- (US) Alabama Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) Alaska GOP Caucus.

- (US) American Samoa Democratic Caucus.

- (US) Arkansas Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) California Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) Colorado Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) Iowa Democratic Caucus.

- (US) Maine Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) Massachusetts Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) Minnesota Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) North Carolina Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) Oklahoma Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) Tennessee Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) Texas Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) Utah Democratic Primary and GOP Caucus.

- (US) Vermont Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.

- (US) Virginia Democratic Primary and GOP Primary.