European FX Outlook: ECB, BoE and Fed speakers ahead

What you need to know before markets open:

• After the UK labor market showed signs of a slowdown, the UK retail sales are set to follow the pattern in October.
• The whole set of Bank of England policymakers are due to speak in Liverpool.
• The Fed speakers are scheduled together with the weekly jobless claims and the US industrial production for the afternoon.
• The House of Representatives is set to vote on its version of the Tax bill and it is likely to pass. The Senate version will be marked up in committee this week.

Thursday’s market moving events

• Australian unemployment fell to 5.4% while employment rose by 3.7K in October and the unemployment rate remaining at 5.5%.
• ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Jazbec speaks in Ljubljana at 8:00 GMT.
• ECB's Yves Mersch speaks in Frankfurt, Germany at 8:45 GMT.
• The UK retail sales are seen rising 0.1% m/m in October, but turning negative falling -0.6% over the year.
• The Eurozone CPI is seen up 0.1% m/m while dwelling at 1.4% over the year in October. Core inflation though is seen falling -0.1% m/m while decelerating to 0.9% y/y.
• The US initial jobless claims are seen rising 235K in a week ending November 10.
• Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to decelerate to 25.0 in November.
• Canada’s manufacturing sales are expected to fall 0.3% m/m in September.
• Canada’s private employment survey from ADP will be released for the first time.
• The Bank of England policymakers including Governor Mark Carney, Deputy Governor  Ben Broadbent, and  David Ramsden are due to speak about economics at various public schools, in Liverpool at 14:00 GMT.
• Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester addresses Cato Institute's 35th Annual Monetary Conference: The Future of Monetary Policy, in Washington at 14:10 GMT.
• The US industrial production is expected to rise 0.5% m/m in October.
• Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan is scheduled to speak at the Chartered Financial Analyst Society of Houston meeting at 18:10 GMT.
• San Francisco Federal Reserve President John C. Williams speaks in San Francisco at 20:00 GMT.
• ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio speaks in Ottawa at 20:00 GMT.
• The Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard is due to speak about financial technology at the Third Annual Financial Stability Conference hosted by the University of Michigan at 20:45 GMT. 
• New York Fed Vice President Simon Potter speaks in New York at 21:30 GMT.

Major forex market movers

• The risk-off mood saw US Dollar on its knees on Wednesday morning, but it recovered with Republicans going ahead with the US tax reform plan.
• The US equity markets and the US Dollar will be a factor of Tax cut plan and Fed speakers indicating chances of rate hikes this December and in 2018.

Wednesday’s macro summary

• Japan’s GDP rose 0.3% q/q while rising 0.1% y/y.
• French EU norm inflation rose 0.1% m/m while rising 1.2% in October.
• The RBA Deputy Governor Luci Ellis was giving a lecture on internal sources of growth like innovation and technology.
• ECB's Hansson said that there is a scope for some prudent recalibration of ECB policies due to a stronger economy and the output gap closing relatively quickly. The ECB Governing Council can't make the stance of policy just dependent just on asset purchases, as “we are not looking only at that. We feel more and more confident Euro zone inflation will reach desired levels.” According to Hansson, waiting too long with reducing stimulus can be much more disruptive as you have to play catch-up.
• Chicago Fed president Charles Evans sees 3-4 years before the US gets to point where Fed balance sheet is closer to normalizing.
• The UK labor market report showed the number of new unemployment claims rising 1.1K in October while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% for the 3-months ending in September and wages rose 2.2% y/y both including and excluding bonuses.
• ECB's Angeloni said there is a plan of presenting the considerations to address the existing stock of NPLs by the first quarter of 2018. The proposal will include appropriate backstops and adequate transitional arrangements for banks. 
• ECB's Praet said that the residual monetary support needed to assist the economy in its transition to a new normal will increasingly come from forward guidance on our policy rates.
• BoE's Deputy Governor Broadbent confirmed it was right to remove monetary accommodation this month, given above-target inflation and dwindling spare capacity in the UK economy. Broadbent also said it was “premature” to claim that lower unemployment no longer generates upward pressure on pay.
• The US retail sales rose 0.2% m/m while rising 4.6% y/y, but the core sales rose only 0.1% m/m, missing the market expectations.
• The US headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m and 2.0% y/y. The core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% 
• m/m, but ticked up to 1.8% over the year. 

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