EUR/USD: Calm trading mode remains in play, investors looking for the trigger
|The single European currency remains above 1,07 level in a calm trading environment as investors continue to shy away from taking big bets.
Scalping traders continue to receive the benefits of limited trading range , but the risks of breaking some levels increase as this mode is already quite tired and the risk of decompression increases.
The beginning of the week did not give any great surprise, the announcements were close to the expected ones, with the result that the exchange rate remained in a tight trading range near to 1,0700 level.
Investors continue to look for the catalyst that could create a strong specific direction in the exchange rate but and today a poor agenda it would be difficult to act as a trigger.
The picture remains cloudy with investors avoiding big bets and although the interest rate differential clearly favors the US currency they seem quite wary of taking large positions in favor of the US currency as several estimates are on the table that towards the second half of the year and especially towards at the end of the year the European currency may move well above the 1,10 level.
There are no any changes in bets on rates cut prospects from Fed and ECB, which is also reflected in the very ''heavy'' exchange rate of the last few days.
Today's agenda is of moderate interest and the only thing that stands out is consumer confidence in US and several statements by Fed officials.
Anything new on the table with a significant change in rhetoric from Fed officials will be a surprise and the likelihood that the exchange rate will remain ''heavy'' is good.
No change in my thinking, I remain on hold and would like levels near 1,06 or below for the prospect of buying the Euro or near to 1,10 for dollar-long positions.
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