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Analysis

EM currencies and 60 year highs

The view to 50 year periods takes on a vastly different meaning in regards to EM currency pairs as many pairs trade at 60 and 67 year highs. And highs as USD/Other Currency and EUR/Other currency. USD and EUR both embarked on uptrends with the end result to reach 60 and 67 year highs beginning from 1953 and 1960.

What allowed such a rise in prices from the 1960's onward was the monetary policy revolution  that occurred in Europe between Germany and France and the fight for currency dominance between the French Franc and German Deutschmark. The victory went to the German central bank and the Duetschemark. And this revolution led to today's Euro as a single currency. Interested may read this most fascinating blow by blow and deeply detailed story in The Gold War by Ian Davidson and Gordon Weil.

If 60 and 67 year highs are viewed from the perspective of averages then miles upon miles of downside exists to both USD and EUR currency pairs. In year 48 of the currency free float then becomes the question to what and how EM currency prices wil trade upon the next 50 year period. Exchange rate prices for EM currencies are much higher  and contain far wider ranges than G28's and explains how easily EM may traverse the vital 50 year period mark. Yet it provides a warning to 60 and 67 year highs as prices must normalize.

USD/CLP the Chilean Peso for example trades at 60 year highs. Chile is home to the world's largest Copper mines and is the world's number 1 supplier. Are Copper prices lower for long periods upon a currency re set to the next 50 year period is unknown.

Following are historic highs for USD and EUR currencies and monthly average highs. All currently trade at or near historic tops. Any higher prices then creates another monthly average. AUD/CHF for example trading at 0.5800's and 60 year lows didn't exist as a price but a new monthly average was created at 0.5900's. Also note EUR exchange rates always priced above USD. Its traditonal EUR.

USD/CLP Chilean Peso, 60 year highs 834.18.

EUR/CLP 60 year highs 929.99

USD/COP Columbian Peso, 60 year highs 3917.1499

EUR/COP 60 year highs, 4362.07

USD/INR Indian Rupee, 60 year highs, 75.56

EUR/INR 60 year highs 85.26

USD/ISK Iceland Krona, 60 year highs, 142.67

EUR/ISK 60 year highs, 155.00

USD/MXN Mexican Peso, 60 year highs, 24.26

EUR/MXN 60 year highs 26.59

USD/MYR Malaysian Ringgit, 60 year highs, 4.3429

EUR/MYR 60 year highs, 4.9279

USD/NOK Norwegian Krone, 67 year highs, 10.1924

EUR/NOK, 67 year highs 11.2943

USD/PHP Philippean Peso, 60 year highs, 53.00's

EUR/PHP 60 year highs, 62.00's and trades at 54.00's

USD/SEK, Swedish Krona, 67 year highs 10.00's

EUR/SEK 67 year highs, 11.17

USD/ZAR, South African Rand, 60 year highs, 18.4447. New average created to accommodate higher Rand.

EUR/ZAR, 60 year highs, 20.0337, new average created.

USD/ARS Argentine Peso, 39 year highs, 64.8489. New average created due to higher prices.

EUR/ARS, 39 year highs, 70.4510, New average created.

USD/TRY, Turkish Lira, 21 year highs, 6.71

EUR/TRY 21 year highs, 7.2916

USD/RUB Russian Ruble 27 year highs, 67.00's

EUR/RUB 27 year highs, 84.03

USD/RON Romanian Leu, 14 year highs, Lifetime highs, 4.44

EUR/RON 14 year, lifetime highs, 4.8323

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