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Analysis

ECB decides after Fed doves say goodbye to jumbo cut [Video]

The latest US CPI data, and the reaction to data was mixed on Wednesday. The good news is that the headline inflation fell from 2.9% to 2.5% in August, and sank significantly below the 3% level where it was resisting since last summer. But core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – came in line with the expectations on a yearly basis, and slightly higher-than-expected on a monthly basis – and marked the end of the 25 or 50bp cut for next week’s FOMC meeting. It will likely be a 25bp cut, ladies and gents.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet and most likely deliver its second 25bp cut later today. A 25bp cut is fully baked in the market prices, but there is room to act on what comes next. The decision will either keep the EURUSD afloat above 1.10 or send the pair below this psychological level.

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