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Analysis

Dollars rises on safe-haven buying due to Ukraine fear

The greenback rallied across the board on Friday after falling briefly earlier following Russian President Putin's comments that there were some progress between Moscow and Ukraine, however, traders sold the euro heavily in New York afternoon on continued Ukraine uncertainty.  
  
Reuters reported Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday there had been some progress in Moscow's talks with Ukraine, but provided no details.  "There are certain positive shifts, negotiators on our side tell me," Putin said in a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko, adding that talks continued "practically on a daily basis". Putin did not elaborate, but said in the televised remarks that he would go into more detail with Lukashenko.  
  
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar traded with a firm bias in Asia due partly to active cross-selling in jpy and gained to 117.05 in European morning. The pair ratcheted higher after Putin's comments and rose to a fresh 5-year peak at 117.35 in New York on usd's broad-based strength.  
  
The single currency met renewed selling at 1.1018 in Asia and dropped to 1.0961 in European morning. Despite jumping briefly to session highs at 1.1043 after Putin's comments, price erased its gains and tumbled to as low as 1.0903 in New York due partly to cross-selling in euro especially vs sterling.  
  
The British pound remained under pressure in Asia and dropped to 1.3052 in early European morning. The pair then rallied to an intra-day high at 1.3125 ahead of New York open on Putin's comments, however, price then met renewed selling there and tumbled in tandem with euro to a near 15-month trough at 1.3028 near New York close.  
  
On the data front, Reuters reported U.S. consumer sentiment fell more than expected in early March as gasoline prices surged to a record high in the aftermath of Russia's war against Ukraine, a survey showed on Friday. The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index dropped to 59.7 in the first half of this month from a final reading of 62.8 in February.  
  
Data to be released this week :  
  
U.K. Rightmove house price, France exports, imports, trade balance, current account and Italy trade balance on Monday.  
  
New Zealand business NZ PSI, Australia house price index, China retail sales, industrial output, Germany wholesale price index, ZEW current conditions, ZEW economic sentiment, U.K. average weekly earnings, employment change, ILO unemployment rate, claimant count, Swiss producer/import price, housing starts, France CPI, EU ZEW survey expectation, industrial production, U.S. PPI, redbook, NY Fed manufacturing and Canada manufacturing sales on Tuesday.  
  
New Zealand current account, Japan trade balance, imports, exports, industrial production, Australia Westpac leading index, China house prices, Italy CPI, U.S. MBA mortgage application, retail sales, imports prices, export prices, NAHB housing market index, business inventories, Fed interest rate decision, Canada wholesale trade and CPI on Wednesday.  
  
Japan machinery orders, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Swiss exports, imports, trade balance, EU HICP, U.K. BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE Corp bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization and manufacturing output on Thursday.  
  
New Zealand GDP, Japan nationwide CPI, BOJ interest rate decision, tertiary industry activity, Italy trade balance, EU labour costs, trade balance, Canada retail sales, new housing price index, U.S. leading index change and existing home sales on Friday.  

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