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Analysis

Dollar ends with modest gain on safe-haven bid due to lingering Russia-Ukraine tensions

The greenback pared intra-day losses made in European morning and later ended the day modestly higher against majority of its peers as news of an explosion in Ukraine triggered broad-based risk aversion.  
  
Dollar and yen initially fell in Asia when Reuters reported U.S. Secretary of Antony Blinken has accepted an invitation to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov late next week provided Russia does not invade Ukraine, the U.S. State Department said on Thursday.  
  
Reuters reported Russian-backed separatist authorities in eastern Ukraine said on Friday that a car had been blown up near their government building in the centre of the city of Donetsk, the TASS news agency reported.    Russia's Interfax news agency reported that nobody was hurt in the incident. Russia's RIA news agency reported that there had been a large explosion.  
  
Versus the Japanese yen, although price jumped in Asian morning from 114.80 to 115.27 on news of de-escalating tension in Ukraine, then to session highs at 115.29 in early European morning. The pair then retreated to 114.98 in New York morning on cross-buying in jpy and last traded at 115.01 near the close.  
  
The single currency traded with a firm undertone in Asia and edged up to session highs at 1.1376 in early European morning on de-escalating tension in Ukraine. However, price met renewed selling there and fell to an intra-day low at 1.1315 in New York on news of an explosion in Ukraine together with cross-selling of euro especially vs sterling.  
  
The British pound found renewed buying at 1.3601 in Asian morning and rose to an intra-day high at 1.3642 in early European morning. Cable then erased its gains and tumbled in tandem with euro on risk-averse usd buying to session lows of 1.3574 in New York.  
  
In other news, Reuters reported it will be appropriate for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates in March in response to high inflation and strong jobs growth, New York Fed Bank President John Williams said Friday.  
  
Data to be released this week :  
  
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, U.K. Rightmove house price, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, China house prices, Germany producer prices, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI and Markit services PMI, U.S. Market Holiday and Canada Market Holiday on Monday.  
  
Italy CPI, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trends orders, U.S. monthly home price, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI and consumer confidence on Tuesday.  
  
Australia construction work done, wage price index, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision, Japan Market Holiday, Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, France business climate, Swiss investor sentiment, EU HICP, U.S. mortgage application and redbook on Wednesday.  
  
Australia capital expenditure, building capex, Swiss non-farm payrolls, France consumer confidence, Italy industrial sales, U.S. building permits, GDP, PCE price, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, national activity index, average weekly earnings, new home sales and KC Fed manufacturing on Thursday.  
  
New Zealand retail sales, Japan Tokyo CPI, coincident index, leading indicator, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Germany GDP, import prices, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, trade balance, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, University of Michigan sentiment pending home sales and Canada budget balance on Friday.  

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