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Analysis

Dollar ends slightly lower on mixed US data

Although the greenback rebounded in New York trading on upbeat U.S. consumer spending data, price then pared its gains and ended marginally lower against its peers on Friday as the final University of Michigan report showing slipped consumer inflation expectation triggered concerns of recession over inflation worries.  
  
Reuters reported U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in June as Americans paid more for goods and services, with monthly inflation surging by the most since 2005.    Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 1.1% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. ata for May was revised up to show outlays gaining 0.3% instead of 0.2% as previously reported.    
Economists polled had forecast consumer spending would accelerate by 0.9%.  
  
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar fell from Asian high at 134.67 to a 6-week bottom at 132.51 at European open on cross-buying in jpy together with broad-based weakness in usd. However, the pair then rebounded strongly to 134.59 in New York morning after the release of U.S. data before retreating to 133.22.  
  
The single currency traded with a firm bias in Asia and gained to session highs at 1.0254 at European open before retreating sharply to 1.0186. The pair then briefly rebounded to 1.0245 on upbeat EU GDP before falling to an intra-day low at 1.0147 in New York morning on usd's rebound after higher-than-expected US inflation data before recovering to 1.0227 on renewed usd's weakness near the close.  
  
Sources from from Reuters, euro zone economic growth accelerated quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, preliminary data showed on Friday, defying expectations of a slowdown, thanks to a much stronger than forecast performance in Spain, France and Italy.    
Euro zone gross domestic product rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period, estimates by the European Union's statistics office Eurostat showed and 4.0% year-on-year.      
The Economists polled had expected a 0.2% quarterly rise and a 3.4% year-on-year gain, after a 0.5% quarterly increase and a 5.4% annual rise in the first three months.  
  
The British pound also traded with a firm undertone in Asia and rose to a 1-month peak at 1.2245 in early European morning. However, price erased its gains and tumbled to session lows at 1.2064 in New York morning on usd's strength before rebounding strongly to 1.2188 near the close.  
  
Data to be released this week :  
  
Australia AIG manufacturing index, S&P manufacturing PMI, New Zealand building permits, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Germany retail sales, S&P manufacturing PMI, Swiss Market Holiday, France S&P manufacturing PMI, EU S&P manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, Italy S&P manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, U.K. S&P manufacturing PMI, U.S. S&P manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI and Canada market holiday on Monday.  
  
Australia building permits, RBA interest rate decision, U.K. Nationwide house price, Swiss consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI, U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, Canada S&P manufacturing PMI and New Zealand GDT price index on Tuesday.  
  
Australia AIG construction index, S&P Global services PMI, retail sales, New Zealand employment change, unemployment rate, labor costs index, Japan Jibun bank services PMI, China Caixin services PMI, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, S&P Global services PMI, Swiss CPI, France budget balance, S&P Global services PMI, Italy S&P Global services PMI, retail sales, EU S&P Global services PMI, producer prices, retail sales, UK S&P Global services PMI, U.S. MBA mortgage application, S&P Global services PMI, durable goods, durable ex-defense, durable ex-transport, factory orders and ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.  
  
Australia trade balance, imports, exports, Germany industrial orders, U.K. S&P construction PMI, BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchases, BOE MPC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut, U.S. international trade balance, goods trade balance, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Canada building permits, trade balance, exports and imports on Thursday.  
  
Australia AIG services index, Japan all household spending, coincident index, leading indicator, UK Halifax housing prices, France current account, trade balance, industrial output, imports, exports, non-farm payrolls, Italy industrial output, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average weekly earnings, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and Ivey PMI on Friday.  

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