Currency market: USD/JPY, Russia oil imports and next week
|Note USD/JPY and yesterday's 4 numbers: 115.11, 115.40, 115.97 and 116.27. USD/JPY traded to 115.80 or between 115.40 and 115.97. Lows achieved 115.58 or between 115.40 and 115.97.
Yesterday's day trade price moves fall in line with the new trade concept neutral to target. The complete day trade actually contained 1 trade for a total of 21 pips. To bank 21 pips, entry and target had to trade perfectly and knowledge of exact numbers was required. For the vast majority, no trade existed and a waste of 7 1/2 hours.
The new 2015 regulatory requirements to reserves and interest rate targets long ago entered a new phase to disrupt day trades but also to permanently wave good bye to the old ranges to traded markets and to welcome the dead currency and market price. Trading life as we once knew it is permenantly gone.
If 2015 is not enough, central banks since 2018 have been working on the next latest concepts to the risk free interest rate. The ECB's Eonia for example was once represented as the floor to ECB rates but Eonia was transformed to STIR as the top and risk free interest rate. The ECB and Europe central banks were always the radicals to central banks by adjusting normal market order to change to concepts to suit themselves. Today is no different.
The positve to yesterday's day trade was the new weekly trade as short 115.97 to target 114.98. The day trade offered an entry at 80 and a miss yet an entry. Lows traded to 115.24 and +56 pips from 80. The day trade was employed to satisfy entry and target to the weekly trade. The low price yesterday was 115.11 to alert to 114.98 wasn't trading yesterday which meant either exit for profits or remain to target 114.98 for an extra 13 pips.
Russia oil imports to United States
The Russian relations to imported oil as seen from the EIA data began slowly in the 1990's with a 10 year total of 64,341,000 barrels. The United states placed sanctions on Russia due to the 2014 invasion of Crimea. Weekly EIA data was blank since 2014 against zero imports.
Imports began again in October 2020 wth 340,000 imported barrels. Since November 2020, Imports skyrocketed from 168,000 lows to highs August 2021 at 1, 350, 000 barrels. The weekly average since November 2020 factors to 603, 314 barrels.
Last week, 337,000 barrels were importted, 20,000 for January, 331,000 for December and 729,000 for November 2021.
As Biden assumed the presidency and eliminated oil independence to favor greens as Solar, wind and electric nehicles, Rhe turned to Russia as a souce for imports.
Overall, Canada ranks number 1 to Oil imports as this historic relationship remains solidified over many, many decades. The number 2 as Russia and 3rd as Mexico is a far distant 2nd and 3rd.
Next week
Currency market focus is again on longer dated averages. EUR/USD for example satisfied its target at 1.1105 from the 5 year average. In play is the 10 year average and target at 1.0973. EUR/USD Lows achieved 1.1009 and 36 pips from target. EUR/USD remains deeply oversold on a long only strategy.
Concerning to AUD/USD is the break above the 5 year average at 0.7291 while NZD/USD just broke above its 5 year at 0.6827. Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD are deeply overbought from lower averages. AUD and NZD cross pairs are deeply overbought.
The break above forced EUR/AUD to trade below its 10 year average at 1.5010. The positive is GBP/AUD faces solid supports at 1.8077 and 1.7998. Both EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are deeply oversold.
EUR/NZD trades deeply oversold at 1.6100's and targets easily 1.6400's while GBP/NZD should stop the EUR/NZD slide lower as support exists at 1.9298.
JPY cross pairs achieved 100 pips lower as written Sunday. EUR/JPY is supported by 126.47, 126.27 and 125.91. GBP/JPY 151.07 and 149.82. Lower for AUD/JPY must break 84.43, NZD/JPY 77.01 and CAD/JPY faces no threats.
The trades moving forward are wide rangers GBP/NZD, EUR/NZD, GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD then EUR/CAD and EUR/USD.
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