Currency Market: EUR/USD averages from 5 to 50 days
|Currency markets beging the week in dead neutral for a vast majority of 28 currency pairs and not much difference to movements from last week. The 2 week cycle to currency prices is alive and well and this 2 week cycle is derived by central banks since year 2000 and seen from 5, 10, 20 and 50 day averages.
Prior to year 2000, central banks met as they desired or as a need existed. In year 2000, central banks agreed to meet every 35 days or every 6 weeks. The 35 days would come to be known as Maintenance periods or the inter period between meetings.
Monthly averages are viewed as 30 days and close to alignment to 6 trade days per week X 6 weeks or 36 trade days. The numbers 5, 6, 30, 35 and 36 would become dominant to moving averages and assist to create and solidify the 2 week cycle.
EUR/USD 50 day moving average is not actually 50 days but 36 days and is located today at 1.1331.
Since year 2000 and Maintenace periods, central banks offered uniformity to the traded price. The 2 week cycle or every other week is seen as 1, 3 and 5 weeks and 2, 4 and 6.
The EUR/USD in 6 weeks from the December 17 meeting traded weekly from December 12 to 17 and onward as: 197 pips, 187 pips, 82, 92, 197, 131 and 223.
Since the Feb 3 meeting and last week, EUR/USD traded 162 pips and expected to trade this week right around 100 pips.
EUR/USD averages from 5 to 50 days and factored perfectly are located this week at 1.1415, 1.1378, 1.1314, and 1.1331.
GBP/USD 5 to 50 days are found from 1.3547, 1.3546, 1.3505 and 1.3532. GBP/USD closed at 1.3547 directly on the 5 day average.
The 2 week cycle is wholly dependent on movements from a break to a significant average or the week trades to dead ranges.
USD/JPY Last Weekly Trade
Short 115.56 and 115.63 to target 114.53
Result: 116.33 highs or off 70 pips to entry. No problem.
For the 3rd time in 11 weekly trades, required to add 1 lot and trade to target on a free money market given blessing.
Result 116.33 highs, Lows 115.01
2 lots traded short from 116.33 and 115.63.
From 115.63 to 115.01 +62 pips. Then 116.33 to 115.01 +132 pips for a total of 194 pips.
The original trade offered 110 pips then the reversal. By trade at 116.33, an extra 84 pips was profit.
From 1401 and +194 pips, the new weekly total heading into week 12 is +1595.
USD/CAD and USD/CHF begin the week overbought and neutral to overbought for USD/JPY. USD/CHF from 0.9246 and DXY 96.04 trades a spread at 358 pips. As written, The spread will run 300 pips long into the future as USD/CHF is a great barometer to DXY. Locked in is 58 pips.
USD/CAD no changes since last week as USD/CAD trades from vital levels at 1.2829 to 12661. CAD/CHF for the 2nd week running remains a problem to USD/CAD movements.
EUR/USD last week broke below 1.1385 and 1.1384 to trade 1.1344 lows. The 5 year average at current 1.1527 and rising by the week targets 1.1092. No trust to the banks 1.0800 target. Current EUR/USD 6 month seasonal downtrnd ends in May therefore EUR/USD has 3 months to achieve 1.0800 or 500 pips at 200 pips per month.
EUR/USD remains oversold to long term averages on a long only strategy.
JPY Cross Pairs
EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY are overbought and divergent to neutral AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. The JPY cross pair strategy is short. GBP/JPY as leader will move the most and pay the best. CHF/JPY is also a short only strategy currency as we wait for the breaks at 123.00's and 120.00's.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD begins the week oversold. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY prevent larger moves this week however AUD/USD and NZD/USD will perfom almost to last week's standards. Assistance is derived from AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF as well as NZD/CAD and AUD/CAD.
CHF Cross Pairs
Oversold AUD/CHF and NZD/CHF are better trades to EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF while CAD/CHF is best to stand clear.
GBP/NZD drives EUR/NZD as GBP/NZD remains overbought. GBP/AUD is the better trade to EUR/AUD and the driver pair to EUR/AUD movements this week.
EUR/GBP sits deeply oversold yet same old EUR/GBP as it lacks range. Watch 0.8415 and 0.8426.
GBP/USD remains at breaks below at 1.3446, 1.3381 and 1.3282. The 5 year average at 1.3147 sits against many averages at 1.3100's as 1.3100's stand as a brick wall. Lower and short strategies for GBP/USD this week.
USD/JPY Weekly Trade
Week 12 and 1595 pips banked. On to 2000 and no losses.
Short 115.83 and 115.91 to target 114.82. Long 114.82 to target 115.25.
S&P's 500 Day Trade
Long bottoms and short tops. 4481.88 to 4356.43. Levels: 4480.85, 4464.22, 4401.11, 4396.54, 4391.52, 4386.51, 4376.48, 4366.45 and 4356.43.
AMC 19.48 to 18.14.
Wal Mart 136.83 to 133.82.
NASDAQ 13532.78 to 14049.52.
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