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Analysis

Currency market: AUD/USD and day trade explained

AUD/USD rose 57 pips for RBA and approached 0.7612 then AUD dropped 119 pips to 0.7479 lows. Only upon catastrophe would AUD drop 119 pips at one time. In actuality, AUD dropped 57 pips to day trade end time then 67 pips from vital 10 am time. The ECB dropped AUD by only X pips.

To achieve day trade highs at RBA 57 pips and day trade lows at 67 pips requires 2 different sets of information as AUD like all currency prices are Fixed to prices, levels, ranges and targets. Target is a misnomer as day trades are designed for multiple longs and shorts so target is irrelevant to multiple trades as no target exists, only longs and shorts.

To bank 67 pips, ECB information was required. Approximately 23 central banks set day trade prices within a 24 hour trade period to include the 5 pm close time for US markets. For most popular EM currencies, approximately 25 central banks set day trade prices.

Every central bank on the planet is responsible to set daily currency prices and many central banks also include currency prices to Gold,  Silver and Trade Weight Indices. The central bank of Mongolia offers a daily and terrific breakdown of Brent and USD WTI Oil.

The ECB at 10 am is good for 1 hour of trade then comes London, Frankfurt, Canada's Noon Day and the FED. The 24 hour process then repeats to new currency prices set by central banks.

Hourly charts are most vital because it captures hourly changes within a 24 hour trade period and aligns to central bank prices.

AUD for the 10 am hour actually dropped 56 pips from 0.7546 to 7490. London dropped AUD 4 pips to 0.7486, Frankfurt dropped AUD 7 pips to 0.7479 while Canada's Noon day and the Fed rescued AUD from 0.7479 lows to again trade on a new 24 hour clock.

 From ECB to the Fed is 2 1/2 hours. From 0.7479 lows from 0.7490 took 2 1/2 hours. Was 11 pips worth the 2 1/2 hour wait time or exit with profits and rest for the day and satisfied with profits.

AUD/USD 57 and 67 pips worked on 2 separate central bank clocks. Each time a central bank reports prices then the currency pair of interest must re set to the new price clock. This means a re set to levels, ranges and targets. Its out with the old and in with the new as the old price no longer counts. The old price is meaningless and the new price is responsible for movements. New prices maintain constant price movements.

How did AUD/USD really move based on 57 and 67 pips. For current AUD/USD full ranges are worth about 76 pips however ranges change with each central bank, not much or possibly not at all. Only way to know is to enter the new prices. So AUD/USD moved 57 and 67 pips from an approximate total of 76 pips. AUD/USD barely exceeded the 38 pip mid point.

Here's how AUD/USD moved 57 and 67 pips. The exact pattern price series from the RBA and lows to highs as follows: 4 pips, 5 pips, 5 pips, 4 pips, 5 pips, 5 pips, 4 pips, 5 pips, and 5 pips. AUD and the RBA share a resemblance to NZD and the RBNZ by a price series of 4 and 5 pip patterns.

 A definitive price series is known in advance to every currency price and the patterns are written in stone without hardly a daily change. Trade by calculator is turning into trade by count on your fingers.

Every currency pair is different to a daily price series but every currency price is not uniform to a price series. Patterns may run 7 to 8 pips, or 8 to 7, 9 to 8 pips. All depends on the currency pair. Wider range currency pairs contain wider price patterns.

AUD/USD today contains 5 vital points: 0.7463, 0.7482, 0.7489, 0.7520 and 0.7539.

Not only is a daily price series known in advance to day trades but Fibonacci numbers contains no place to insert within the series. On 67 pips, the 38% mark equates to 56 pips and a loss of 11 pips profit. Without masculating Fibonacci and its many fallacies, eliminate it from trading decisions, especially from day trades.

It's never known in advance if prices will trade a full range, 1/2 range, 1/3 or 1/4 ranges. The market decides but it explains why and how to profit from day trades as all information is known.

Today is Fed day and everybody expects a big move. The FED reports at 2:00 pm while currency prices traded for 1 1/2 hours from 12:30. Pro traders and central banks locked into central bank prices with extremely fast computers normally take out most vital trade prices within minutes of 12:30 or any reported central bank price and leave unsuspected traders with scraps to trade.

Explains again why central bank meetings only see 50 pip moves but also explains how to trade against and beat price competition from central bank computers. Here, trade preparation is 1/2 the battle to winning. 

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