Crude Oil Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]
|WTI Elliott wave analysis
Function - Counter-trend
Mode - Corrective
Structure - Triple Zigzag
Position - Wave X of triple zigzag
Direction - Wave Y of the triple zigzag
Details -Double zigzag for wave X entered the Fibonacci support base to find support after marginally surpassing the 80 major level. It may go deeper in the zone but should not exceed the invalidation level 75.49. A reaction upwards is expected from the zone.
The US Crude Oil has been shedding prices since April 12, 2024. Since then, the commodity has lost nearly 10% in value. The fall followed a 4-month, 29% rally that started in December 2023. The question is whether the commodity will resume the recovery from December or if all of it will be lost in the coming weeks/months.
The daily chart captures the bearish cycle that retraces the strong impulse rally between the Covid time and the March 2022 peak of the Russia-Ukraine war. This retracement, as shown, is emerging into a double zigzag pattern - labeled W-X-Y (circled in blue) of the primary degree. Price is currently in the last leg - blue wave Y, which is also subdivided into (A)-(B)-(C) zigzag structure of the intermediate degree.
A closer look shows wave (B) is ongoing and has completed a double zigzag. However, one more rally is likely to surface for a triple zigzag. So, we are torn between a double and triple zigzag for (B). One has to be invalidated for the other to be valid. If it’s a double zigzag, the current decline from Y should break the channel downwards and complete an impulse. However, if the current dip completes another corrective structure and price responds sharply upside, a triple zigzag will be favored. Therefore, we need to investigate the current dip on the H4 chart.
The H4 chart shows a double zigzag emerging from wave Y. The commodity should find support between the 79.23 and 76.90 Fibonacci areas and react sharply upside for wave Z to complete a triple zigzag. This is the preferred count. However, if a significant rebound doesn’t happen at the zone and the decline continues below 75.49, we can refer to the drop from Y as an impulse and take wave (B) to have ended at 87.63 with a double zigzag structure.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.