Car registration dynamics slow down
|On the radar
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In Poland, industrial output growth declined by -0.3% y/y in September. Producer prices went down by -6.3% y/y. Employment dropped by -0.5% y/y while wages increased by 10.3% y/y
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Producer prices in Slovenia declined by -0.9% y/y in September.
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In Croatia, September’s unemployment rate declined to 4.6% while August’s real wage grew by 11.9% y/y.
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In Hungary, real wage growth arrived at 9.4% y/y.
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Today, there is Hungarian central bank meeting, and we expect no change in key policy rate.
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In Poland, real retail sales will be published for September at 10 AM CET.
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Slovenia will publish real wage growth for August.
Economic developments
In September 2024, new EU car registrations continued their downward trajectory (-6.1%) with negative results across three of the region’s four major markets: France (-11.1%) and Italy (-10.7%), with the German market declining by 7%. Year-to-date performance remains marginally positive in the EU. As far as the region is concerned, the growth was negative in three countries in September 2024. Hungary had a slight decline (-0.5%), while Romania and Slovakia experienced the greatest slumps (-14.9% y/y and -7.8% y/y respectively). Other countries saw positive growth dynamics in September 2024. Year-to-date, new car registrations are higher in all countries. Croatia and Poland have so far outperformed their peers with double-digit growth dynamics. Hungary and Slovenia have also shown solid year-to-date performance.
Market developments
CEE currencies weakened against the euro at the beginning of the week, while long-term yields edged slightly up apart from Croatia and Romania. Today, the Hungarian central bank holds a rate-setting meeting, and we expect no change in the key policy rate due to the weakness of the Hungarian forint. Deputy Governor Virag suggested such a scenario, indicating a break in monetary easing. Furthermore, it seems that the break may last for a "sustained period" if the external environment and inflation outlook justify a cautious approach. It will be interesting to hear the statement and comments from the central bank after the decision. Romania held a successful bond auction of 2029 government papers, selling more than planned (RON 990.1 million).
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