Buy the blood in the streets?
|S&P 500 couldn‘t hold up in face of relatively decent retail sales (even if ex autos were weak) and hot NY Empire State manufacturing. Russell 2000 provided no refuge, and Nasdaq certainly led S&P 500 to the downside, overpowering mildly positive defensives‘ performance. Friday bucked the tendency of being the most bullish day of the week in general, even if yields refused to rise on the day.
During the regular session, S&P 500 went for the fourth of support levels given in the Nov 12 article bringing you the hourly intraday chart – this level was more than amply pierced before some buying emerged before the close.
I say some buying, because it‘s uncertain whether this rebound was strong enough to repel the sellers and put in a local bottom. Therefore, I‘m bringing you not only the 4-hour intraday chart, but also the VIX and yields perspective. Notably, rates (non-)movement didn‘t result in any gold upswing, and oil as well proved it‘s not yet in bullish mode – but you‘re not surprised, I had been very public with these calls during the week, just as regarding the Bitcoin vulnerability, which is turning out as a shallow correction due to as well all the strategic reserve initiatives.
Gold, Silver and miners
Precious metals are putting in a tentative bottom – an attempt that in itself is questionable. I continue favoring the sellers here whether we get a 1-2 days reprieve or not. $2,500 on this chart will be broken to the downside in the weeks ahead, but given that finally the bearish sentiment which I called for you at the very top to develop, is now quite widespread, it‘s thus favoring a retracement in the nearest days.
Crude Oil
The caption is very clear as to what to expect from oil, and my not bullish call Friday was vindicated. Even the $68 - $70 range was broken to the downside, which illustrates the immediate momentum / sentiment as much as not so accommodative monetary policy (expectations) anymore.
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