Bond interest expense now in second place

• Currencies & Metals rally on Friday.

• But get sold in the overnight markets last night.

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And Welcome to December! I made it through Brovember aka November,,,, my most disliked month! How was your Thanksgiving? Mine was good, yummy, and had a great day.... My beloved Mizzou Tigers ended their reg. Season with a win VS rival, Arkansas, and they had to play the game on a snow field! Yes, it snowed here on Saturday, and since I had nowhere to go, and my days of clearing the driveway are over, well... It was nice... But BRRRRRR... It's Cold! And you know me, I detest cold weather.... So, I'll have to grin and bear it until after Christmas, when I'll head south! Beegie Adair greets me this morning with her version of the song: Frosty The Snowman...

Speaking of Brovember.... I once participated in the growing of a mustache during the month, but since it didn't come in as expected, I shaved it off on Dec.1! My good friend, Walt, gave me all kinds of grief about it, so I didn't let it stick around!  

OK, So, the overbought dollar saw some major selling of the green/ peachback the last few days of last week. First it lost 8 index points in the BBDXY on Thursday (our holiday), and on Friday it lost 6 more index points.... So, when I last left you, last Thursday morning, the dollar had been sold in the overnight markets by 5 index points, and so it lost another 3 index points as Europe finished out the holiday....  With no PPT around to dig into their bag of goodies full of Exchange Stabilization Funds, the dollar was left to its own devices (Pet Shop Boys) and, well, this must be what the markets think of the dollar.... Wednesday's data Cupboard had a slew of data but the one piece that I pulled out as significant was the Personal Income, which grew in Rocktober at .6%, which happened to be the largest monthly gain in a month of Sundays! Can you was wage inflation? Which is the scariest thing to the Fed Heads, and probably put the next rate cut on the back burner, which is one of the reasons the dollar started losing so much ground... 

Gold just drifted on Thursday, as there were no markets here, nor were there any short paper traders.... Don't you just wish that was the case every day?  Any way, on Friday, Gold ended the week up $12 to close the week at $2,650.01, and Silver gained 41-cents to end the week at $30.69.... The news of a peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon led to the price of Oil slipping to a $68 handle, and the I already told you about what the bond boys figured out last week, and the 10-year's yield remained at 4.25%....  No bond markets senior traders on Friday, so that pretty much limited any bonds from moving significantly... 

In the overnight markets last night... Well, all the dollar selling ended last night, as traders got back on their desks, and took a look at what had happened while they were gone.... The BBDXY has gained 6 index points back in the overnight markets, and the currencies are all back to looking sick again.... I just talked about the Japanese yen, as it had ended the week at 148, but after last night, the yen is back to 150.... So, the PPT has saved the dollar once more, from an awful crash at the bottom of the cliff, I shake my head in disgust that the powers that be can not leave the markets alone.... I'm just saying....

The price of Gold has given back $6 of its gains last week, in the early trading this morning... And Silver has given back 23-cents.... I was all prepared to talk about how the dollar has finally met its match this morning, but those talks had to be put on hold.... Unfortunately, that is.... 

Well, last week it was announced that the Federal Deficit for 2024, was $1.83 Trillion.... With the National Debt moving past $36 Trillion a week or so ago, the FBO announced that the interest cost on the outstanding debt was over $1 Trillion, thus moving bond servicing costs into 2nd place ahead of Defense Spending, and right behind Social Security at $1.46 Trillion for the most expensive items in the Budget Deficit....  

Well, aren't those 3 things enough to choke a horse? Well, if they aren't, they sure are enough to choke an economy....  I just don't see how the Fed Heads can justify cutting rates when they meet this month, when they hold another 2-day meeting beginning on December 17 and culminating with a rate decision on the December 18th.... Inflation is still there, and growing again, and now we have to worry about wage inflation.... But the Fed heads will be Fed Heads, and they probably will cut rates again, and tell us lies about how they feel that inflation has been beaten.... 

The best performing currency going into the weekend was, Ahem, (it's difficult for me to say this) the Japanese yen.... And no, that's not a typo.... Traders are pointing to Japan's latest inflation data running hot, and thinking that the Bank of Japan will have to hike rates soon.... Which would give you a scene like this as a possibility: The Fed/ Cabal / Cartel is cutting rates, while the BOJ is hiking them.... Now that's quite out there for me to even think about, but it IS a possibility.....

The worst performing currency, even worse than the dollar, as been the Russian ruble... I mentioned this last week, that it has crossed the 100 rubles to the dollar, figure even in the face of 21% interest rates.... I read a long piece about Russia's economy and Central Bank Gov. Elvira Nabiullina, and how she has guided Russia out of every crisis that they've had for over 20 years, and I've put her up on a pedestal at times in the past, but to get Russia out of this one, is goine to take some magic on her part.... Oil is cheap, interest rates are already 21%, the sanctions have made Russia use workarounds, and those are running thin...  

There's all kinds of stuff out there this morning, and this past weekend to make one's head spin.... Stuff like a former Fed Head was convicted of insider trader.... Doug Noland had this to say, "record debt issuance, the loosest financial conditions in years, and prospects for larger deficits and trade war inflation risks under the Trump administration – would unsettle the bond market."...  and Money Supply is ramping up again.... Uh-Oh! And more! But I'm running late this morning, so I'll bring them to you as we go along this week that will be shortened, by one day as Chuck heads to Little Rock, Ark, for his youngest son's wedding.... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard on Wednesday last week, in addition to the Personal Income data we talked about above, the Data Cupboard had the first revision of 3rd QTR GDP, which came in at 2.8%.... Durable Goods Orders for Rocktober were less than expected at a .2% gain.... And the PCE came in as expected at + .2% for Rocktober, and 2.3% year on year.... GDP is junk to me; it is so influenced by Gov't Spending.... Durable Goods Orders used to be pared with Capital Goods Orders, but the Gov't chooses not to print that one any longer, which is sad because Capital Goods Orders is very important as it give us a pulse on Corporate Spending on real things.... 

The Data Cupboard today has the ISM report for Rockober, and I believe that it will remain below 50....  So, that's not a good report card on the economy, is it? No.... It's not! Too much debt... I'm telling you now, so you'll listen to me later, Too much debt causes the economy to slow down because it takes too much to deal with the debt.....  

To recap... While the cat was gone, the mice played late last week... The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a State Fair, but all that selling ended last night as traders returned to their desks, and saw what had happened.... The dollar has rallied 6 index points this morning, and we start the week with the dollar getting bought....  Chuck points out that the Japanese yen ended last week the best performing currency, cough, cough.... And Chuck get into Russia this morning, on an economic basis, that is....  

For What It's Worth.... This came to me over the weekend from the good Folks at GATA, of whom I owe a bit debt of thanks for all their work on alterting the public about the Gold price suppression that's going on.... 

Here's your snippet: " What has been hard has been to get mainstream financial news organizations and even the gold mining industry itself to pay attention to exposure of the secret. A bit ironically, it has been easier to get some central banks to pay attention.

Gold price suppression has been U.S. government policy since at least the 1970s. The policy aimed to defeat any competition for the dollar as the world reserve currency. At first the policy didn’t always work well but eventually it became sophisticated and successful. Now it is starting to fail, in part because of exposure.

Within a few years GATA discovered, on its own and with the help of some wonderful independent researchers, that gold price suppression policy is laid out in dozens of places, a surprising number of them public -- government publications and archives, speeches and memoirs by central bankers and other government officials, and occasional news reports.

Perhaps most succinct and descriptive about the policy are the minutes of a meeting at the U.S. State Department in April 1974 between Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and his assistant undersecretary of state for economic and business affairs, Thomas O. Enders:

The meeting addressed the growing desire among western European countries to revalue their gold reserves upward, thereby increasing gold's role in the international financial system and threatening the dollar's supremacy.

Secretary Kissinger asks Assistant Undersecretary Enders: "Why is it against our interest to have gold in the system?"

Enders answers him: "It's against our interest to have gold in the system because for it to remain there would result in it being evaluated periodically. Although we still have some substantial gold holdings -- about $11 billion -- a larger part of the official gold in the world is concentrated in western Europe. This gives them the dominant position in world reserves and the dominant means of creating reserves. We've been trying to get away from that into a system in which we can control. ..."

Secretary Kissinger interrupts him: "But that's a balance-of-payments problem."

Enders replies: "Yes, but it's a question of who has the most leverage internationally. If they have the reserve-creating instrument, by having the largest amount of gold and the ability to change its price periodically, they have a position relative to ours of considerable power. For a long time we had a position relative to theirs of considerable power because we could change gold almost at will. This is no longer possible -- no longer acceptable. Therefore, we have gone to Special Drawing Rights, which is also equitable and could take account of some of the less-developed-country interests and which spreads the power away from Europe. And it's more rational in. ..."

Secretary Kissinger interrupts again: "'More rational' being defined as being more in our interests or what?”

Enders answers: "More rational in the sense of more responsive to worldwide needs -- but also more in our interest. ..."

Chuck again... This is long because it was his speech, and he goes on at the web site listed above.... But see? I've told you for years, that there were documents that proved the Gov't's hand in the Gold cookie jar!  And some of you didn't believe me.... What do you say now?

Market Prices 12/2/2024: American Style: A$ .6480, kiwi .5888, C$ .7123, euro 1.0508, sterling 1.2672, Swiss $1.1279, European Style: rand 18.1829, krone 11.0982, SEK 10.9712, forint 394.97, zloty 4.0818, koruna 24.0482, RUB 106.00, yen 150.11, sing 1.3458, HKD 7.7809, INR 84.70, China 7.2729, peso 20.51, BRL 6.0389, Oil $68.87, 10-year 4.22%, Silver $30.46, Platinum $944.00, Palladium $988.00, Copper $4.12, and Gold.... $2,644.29.

That's it for today.... Well, this is the BIG week for son, Alex and his beautiful bride to be, Grace. As they will tie the knot on Saturday.... I'll be there all gussied up in a Tux.... They had better take some pictures because that's the last time I'll wear a tux! All I hear from Kathy and her sisters, and daughters revolves around what dress to wear? Hey! This is important stuff! I'm not making light of it! No Way! Well, what Bowl game will my beloved Mizzou Tigers play in this year? I hope somewhere nice and warm after their snow game last Saturday! Gerald Albright takes us to the finish line today with his version of the song: O Tannenbaum.... I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!