AUD/USD Forecast: Dismal mood prevents Aussie from rallying
|AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6923
- Australian trade surplus rose 2% to $8.03 billion in May, missing the market’s expectations.
- China Caixin Services PMI seen back to contraction territory in June.
- AUD/USD holding on to the upper end of the weekly range, downside limited.
The AUD/USD pair surpassed its previous weekly high by a couple of pips, reaching 0.6951 before retreating to end the day unchanged at around 0.6920. Australia released its May Trade Balance this Thursday, which showed that the country’s trade surplus rose 2% to $8.03 billion in the month, as imports fell faster than exports. It was below the market’s expectations of $9 billion, but still positive. The pair followed equities for intraday direction.
This Friday, Australia will publish May Retail Sales, anticipated to be up by 16.3%. The country will also publish the AIG Performance of Construction Index for June, previously at 24.9, and the Commonwealth Bank Services PMI expected unchanged at 53.2. China, in the meantime, will publish the June Caixin Services PMI foreseen at 49.9, down from 55 in May.
AUD/USD short-term technical outlook
The AUD/USD pair retains its neutral-to-bullish stance. In the 4-hour chart, the price is hovering around a flat 20 SMA and still above the larger ones, which lack directional strength. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lack directional strength but hold above their mid-lines. The risk is skewed to the upside, but the pair needs a good catalyst to finally be able to gather bullish momentum and challenge the 0.7000 level.
Support levels: 0.6895 0.6850 0.6810
Resistance levels: 0.6950 0.6990 0.7015
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