Asia wrap: A tech wreck blasts through Asia and more Yen madness
|Thursday's trading session in Asian markets felt like watching a train wreck on repeat, made more gripping as the saga around interest rates deepens all under the ever-watchful eye of the Bank of Japan. The Topix Index in Japan initiated a domino effect across the region, leading to a widespread tumble in Asian markets. It was a tech wreck scene, with the region’s tech giants taking the brunt of the beating. A tech sector index across Asia slumped by around 2%, turning trading floors into a scene of digital despair. This tech tumble followed a 1.2% slide in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index, adding a dollop of sour cream to the already unappetizing market pie.
Over the past week, the drama intensified with a twist in the global markets narrative. Gripped by a financial soap opera, investors braced themselves as the US and Japanese central banks may or may not continue to move in opposite directions, stirring up a cocktail of confusion and sending the yen on a wild rollercoaster ride. Traditionally a low-cost funding darling, the yen suddenly seemed less appealing, flipping scripts and budgets everywhere.
As if on cue, the yen picked itself up on Thursday, dusting off a 1.6% loss against the dollar from Wednesday as the yen madness continues with residual carry trade positions unwinding
The yen carry trade, a venerable staple of global market strategies, has recently become the center of attention due to its sheer magnitude, catching the eyes of many who were previously disengaged. Although I don't have precise data at hand, my years of experience in the FX and eFX space lead me to confidently assert that this is one of the grandest carry trades I've ever seen. This morning's jittery JPY price action hints that despite significant reductions, a mountainous portion of the USDJPY unwind still looms over the market.
The yen carry trade was enormous. Notably, Japan’s net international investment position, excluding banks, indicates that domestic investors— aka every "Mr &Mrs. Watanabe" out there—have collectively pushed about $3.5 trillion into foreign equities and bonds funded through JPY—an absolutely eye-watering amount. And yet, market whispers and street estimates suggest that a hefty 35 to 40% of this behemoth still needs unwinding.
Recent dovish signals from the Bank of Japan's deputy governor have likely provided a much-needed respite, assisting many in navigating out of precarious positions. I believe that the Bank of Japan will hold off on raising interest rates indefinitely as the cleanup continues, if at all at all . This pause will likely make the movement of USDJPY even more sensitive to shifts in the U.S. interest rate landscape tangentially as the JPY funding leg wears down.
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